ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
value factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Industrials Cash-Flow Yield Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FCFIHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+184%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
101
cap-weighted
Inception
Feb 2020
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.30
Ann. Return (LS)
5.5%
Ann. Volatility
18.5%
Max Drawdown
-58.3%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.11
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-3.1%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-0.36
not significant
Monthly turnover
12%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
184%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.60
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
15.0%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.30
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
9.5%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

101 of 101 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1UPS
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INCIndustrials$100.06B
11.58%
2RCL
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTDIndustrials$76.96B
8.91%
3FDX
FEDEX CORPIndustrials$74.68B
8.65%
4NOC
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPIndustrials$74.08B
8.58%
5URI
UNITED RENTALS INCIndustrials$65.48B
7.58%
6DAL
DELTA AIR LINES INCIndustrials$55.35B
6.41%
7UAL
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$37.46B
4.34%
8CCL
CARNIVAL CORP LTDIndustrials$36.17B
4.19%
9SUNB
SUNBELT RENTALS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$30.08B
3.48%
10LUV
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES COIndustrials$23.50B
2.72%
11TXT
TEXTRON INCIndustrials$15.91B
1.84%
12TRU
TRANSUNIONIndustrials$15.40B
1.78%
13UHAL
U-HAUL HOLDING COIndustrials$13.98B
1.62%
14HII
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$10.60B
1.23%
15R
RYDER SYSTEM INCIndustrials$10.52B
1.22%
16AAL
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INCIndustrials$9.91B
1.15%
17OSK
OSHKOSH CORPIndustrials$8.96B
1.04%
18NCLH
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTDIndustrials$8.93B
1.03%
19ACM
AECOMIndustrials$8.78B
1.02%
20AGCO
AGCO CORPIndustrials$8.35B
0.97%
21BAH
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPIndustrials$7.81B
0.90%
22KEX
KIRBY CORPIndustrials$7.71B
0.89%
23MATX
MATSON INCIndustrials$6.72B
0.78%
24SNDR
SCHNEIDER NATIONAL INCIndustrials$6.69B
0.77%
25GATX
GATX CORPIndustrials$6.34B
0.73%
26GXO
GXO LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$6.22B
0.72%
27CAR
AVIS BUDGET GROUP INCIndustrials$5.67B
0.66%
28ADT
ADT INCIndustrials$5.54B
0.64%
29ALK
ALASKA AIR GROUP INCIndustrials$5.07B
0.59%
30AMTM
AMENTUM HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$5.05B
0.58%
31HRI
HERC HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$4.99B
0.58%
32BCO
BRINKS COIndustrials$4.95B
0.57%
33TNL
TRAVEL & LEISURE COIndustrials$4.57B
0.53%
34KBR
KBR INCIndustrials$4.45B
0.51%
35MDU
MDU RESOURCES GROUP INCIndustrials$4.42B
0.51%
36SEB
SEABOARD CORPIndustrials$4.34B
0.50%
37KFY
KORN FERRYIndustrials$4.00B
0.46%
38GEO
GEO GROUP INCIndustrials$3.94B
0.46%
39SKYW
SKYWEST INCIndustrials$3.86B
0.45%
40HUBG
HUB GROUP INCIndustrials$3.13B
0.36%
41MMS
MAXIMUS INCIndustrials$3.06B
0.35%
42CXW
CORECIVIC INCIndustrials$3.03B
0.35%
43CXT
CRANE NXT COIndustrials$2.95B
0.34%
44MGRC
MCGRATH RENTCORPIndustrials$2.90B
0.34%
45TRN
TRINITY INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$2.90B
0.34%
46ABM
ABM INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$2.79B
0.32%
47WERN
WERNER ENTERPRISES INCIndustrials$2.76B
0.32%
48TNET
TRINET GROUP INCIndustrials$2.74B
0.32%
49KMT
KENNAMETAL INCIndustrials$2.57B
0.30%
50PBI
PITNEY BOWES INCIndustrials$2.51B
0.29%
51VVX
V2X INCIndustrials$2.37B
0.27%
52CTOS
CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE INCIndustrials$2.35B
0.27%
53CBZ
CBIZ INCIndustrials$2.28B
0.26%
54ALG
ALAMO GROUP INCIndustrials$1.98B
0.23%
55ALGT
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COIndustrials$1.86B
0.22%
56PRG
PROG HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.86B
0.22%
57HLMN
HILLMAN SOLUTIONS CORPIndustrials$1.59B
0.18%
58AMSC
AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPIndustrials$1.58B
0.18%
59GBX
GREENBRIER COMPANIES INCIndustrials$1.55B
0.18%
60TIC
TIC SOLUTIONS INCIndustrials$1.51B
0.18%
61MRTN
MARTEN TRANSPORT LTDIndustrials$1.44B
0.17%
62ICFI
ICF INTERNATIONAL INCIndustrials$1.43B
0.17%
63ENR
ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.39B
0.16%
64BV
BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.16%
65WLFC
WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORPIndustrials$1.35B
0.16%
66AMRC
AMERESCO INCIndustrials$1.22B
0.14%
67HTLD
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INCIndustrials$1.19B
0.14%
68CVLG
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP INCIndustrials$1.19B
0.14%
69UPWK
UPWORK INCIndustrials$1.12B
0.13%
70RHLD
RESOLUTE HOLDINGS MANAGEMENT INCIndustrials$1.10B
0.13%
71GNK
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTDIndustrials$1.05B
0.12%
72CYRX
CRYOPORT INCIndustrials$832M
0.10%
73RJET
REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$806M
0.09%
74PSIX
POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL INCIndustrials$697M
0.08%
75IIIN
INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$600M
0.07%
76KE
KIMBALL ELECTRONICS INCIndustrials$577M
0.07%
77PKOH
PARK OHIO HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$544M
0.06%
78EBF
ENNIS INCIndustrials$541M
0.06%
79BBCP
CONCRETE PUMPING HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$531M
0.06%
80MG
MISTRAS GROUP INCIndustrials$500M
0.06%
81SPIR
SPIRE GLOBAL INCIndustrials$488M
0.06%
82BXC
BLUELINX HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$471M
0.05%
83MTW
MANITOWOC CO INCIndustrials$468M
0.05%
84PANL
PANGAEA LOGISTICS SOLUTIONS LTDIndustrials$460M
0.05%
85SRTA
STRATA CRITICAL MEDICAL INCIndustrials$446M
0.05%
86QUAD
QUAD/GRAPHICS INCIndustrials$446M
0.05%
87BWMN
BOWMAN CONSULTING GROUP LTDIndustrials$443M
0.05%
88FWRD
FORWARD AIR CORPIndustrials$435M
0.05%
89CVEO
CIVEO CORPIndustrials$382M
0.04%
90ULH
UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$377M
0.04%
91TWIN
TWIN DISC INCIndustrials$326M
0.04%
92PAMT
PAMT CORPIndustrials$311M
0.04%
93ASLE
AERSALE CORPIndustrials$286M
0.03%
94TG
TREDEGAR CORPIndustrials$263M
0.03%
95ALTG
ALTA EQUIPMENT GROUP INCIndustrials$208M
0.02%
96RCMT
RCM TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$196M
0.02%
97RAIL
FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INCIndustrials$144M
0.02%
98SIF
SIFCO INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$141M
0.02%
99SIMA
SIM ACQUISITION CORP IIndustrials$90M
0.01%
100DLHC
DLH HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$80M
0.01%
101AIRT
AIR T INCIndustrials$73M
0.01%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $863.75B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Industrials
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

101 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
68%36
23%6
2%2
5%32
1%9
<1%1
<1%8
·
·

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 706-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $2.8B, Small < $315M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.60, Growth < 0.34 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 97% toward Large, 14% toward Growth. +2% unclassified (7 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt97% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt14% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 101 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
5
Failed
1
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • Days required to liquidate the largest position at 20% of one day's dollar volume.

    Required
    <= 7.0 days
    Actual
    52.9 days
    Margin
    -45.9 days
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 101 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.8 (95% CI 1.4-2.4)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
17.3%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.80x
within
parametric
1.59x
within
cornish fisher
2.15x
over

The estimators agree, which is mild evidence the number isn’t an artefact of one method.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1994
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1994 paper.
Sharpe 0.305.5% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
73%
19 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.26
Sharpe, January 2023 – December 2025
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.43
Dispersion
0.49
Best window
1.47

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.33.9%-8.4%
3 yearsp.a.17.9%-7.0%
5 yearsp.a.16.8%-0.4%
10 yearsp.a.15.4%3.9%
Since inceptionp.a.12.4%3.9%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo16.2%-17.5%
20259.6%-20.4%
202425.7%21.3%
202326.2%-18.8%
2022-1.2%26.7%
202137.1%52.4%
2020-14.0%-20.1%
201927.3%-2.9%
2018-9.4%14.1%
201722.2%4.4%
201631.9%34.5%
2015-15.1%-20.1%
201420.8%19.5%
201340.6%-0.5%
201223.5%11.0%
2011-6.6%1.5%
201026.1%1.3%
200937.8%2.6%
2008-42.4%-11.1%
20077.5%-8.1%
200625.3%11.4%
20057.8%1.9%
200421.4%4.8%
200353.3%12.7%
20023.2%22.1%
20015.4%25.2%
20001.2%9.8%
199914.7%-10.4%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FCFI
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2020-02-11 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$863.75B

Methodology

The Foundry Industrials Cash-Flow Yield Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Industrials common stocks each month by a Cash-Flow Yield signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.