ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
value factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Energy Earnings Yield Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FEPEHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+113%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
20
cap-weighted
Inception
Feb 2022
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.23
Ann. Return (LS)
4.8%
Ann. Volatility
20.6%
Max Drawdown
-60.7%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.14
Test FF5 α (ann.)
0.5%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.05
not significant
Monthly turnover
17%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
113%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.54
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
16.3%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.23
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
11.5%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

20 of 20 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1EQT
EQT CORPEnergy$31.00B
24.25%
2EXE
EXPAND ENERGY CORPEnergy$21.08B
16.49%
3APA
APA CORPEnergy$12.45B
9.74%
4AR
ANTERO RESOURCES CORPEnergy$10.40B
8.14%
5RRC
RANGE RESOURCES CORPEnergy$8.66B
6.78%
6NFG
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COEnergy$7.69B
6.02%
7VAL
VALARIS LTDEnergy$5.30B
4.15%
8CNX
CNX RESOURCES CORPEnergy$4.71B
3.68%
9INSW
INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INCEnergy$4.29B
3.36%
10CRK
COMSTOCK RESOURCES INCEnergy$3.92B
3.06%
11PARR
PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INCEnergy$3.82B
2.99%
12BSM
BLACK STONE MINERALS LPEnergy$3.25B
2.54%
13BKV
BKV CORPEnergy$2.84B
2.22%
14GPOR
GULFPORT ENERGY CORPEnergy$2.75B
2.15%
15LPG
DORIAN LPG LTDEnergy$1.76B
1.37%
16GLP
GLOBAL PARTNERS LPEnergy$1.63B
1.27%
17NBR
NABORS INDUSTRIES LTDEnergy$1.24B
0.97%
18SD
SANDRIDGE ENERGY INCEnergy$503M
0.39%
19SGU
STAR GROUP LPEnergy$430M
0.34%
20NCSM
NCS MULTISTAGE HOLDINGS INCEnergy$114M
0.09%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $127.84B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Energy
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

20 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
71%6
·
·
22%7
3%1
·
3%4
2%2
·

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 137-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $7.1B, Small < $1.8B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.64, Growth < 0.40 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 83% toward Large, 2% toward Growth. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt83% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt2% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 20 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    58.6%
    Margin
    -16.4%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    24.2%
    Margin
    0.8%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

  • Days required to liquidate the largest position at 20% of one day's dollar volume.

    Required
    <= 7.0 days
    Actual
    15.3 days
    Margin
    -8.3 days
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

1 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 20 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.0 (95% CI 1.4-2.2)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
19.5%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.02x
over
parametric
1.91x
within
cornish fisher
2.68x
over · unreliable

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.02 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.91 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1977
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1977 paper.
Sharpe 0.234.8% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
54%
14 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.77
Sharpe, January 2012 – December 2014
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.02
Dispersion
0.57
Best window
1.18

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.50.0%20.3%
3 yearsp.a.7.9%-12.6%
5 yearsp.a.16.8%-7.5%
10 yearsp.a.13.2%3.6%
Since inceptionp.a.12.6%2.8%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo36.8%9.7%
20251.3%-3.2%
2024-11.0%-40.7%
202315.3%24.0%
202254.1%5.9%
202122.1%-25.8%
20207.5%81.6%
20199.3%-5.7%
2018-5.6%21.8%
2017-4.1%1.5%
20168.6%-10.3%
2015-7.4%53.2%
2014-7.7%-17.0%
201323.4%-11.2%
20127.1%-1.5%
201113.8%-0.4%
201011.0%-15.2%
200935.9%-7.1%
2008-43.1%-17.4%
200734.2%4.5%
200623.0%6.2%
200534.2%-14.5%
200432.5%1.0%
200330.9%12.8%
2002-16.3%6.9%
200111.3%63.8%
200060.4%16.3%
199934.2%15.0%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FEPE
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2022-02-13 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$127.84B

Methodology

The Foundry Energy Earnings Yield Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Energy common stocks each month by a Earnings Yield signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.