ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
reversal factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Consumer Cyclical Long-Term Reversal Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FLRCHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−26%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
57
cap-weighted
Inception
Apr 2022
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.07
Ann. Return (LS)
1.6%
Ann. Volatility
23.9%
Max Drawdown
-71.3%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.19
Test FF5 α (ann.)
1.5%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.13
not significant
Monthly turnover
16%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-26%
over 283 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.44
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
12.5%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.07
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
10.9%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

283 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

57 of 57 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1W
WAYFAIR INCConsumer Cyclical$11.79B
12.28%
2ETSY
ETSY INCConsumer Cyclical$7.98B
8.31%
3VFC
V F CORPConsumer Cyclical$6.65B
6.93%
4CZR
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$6.08B
6.33%
5PII
POLARIS INCConsumer Cyclical$4.16B
4.34%
6YETI
YETI HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$3.87B
4.03%
7QS
QUANTUMSCAPE CORPConsumer Cyclical$3.60B
3.75%
8RH
RHConsumer Cyclical$3.55B
3.70%
9CALY
CALLAWAY GOLF COConsumer Cyclical$3.48B
3.63%
10PPLI
PEOPLE INCCommunication Services$3.31B
3.45%
11AAP
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INCConsumer Cyclical$3.19B
3.32%
12UAA
UNDER ARMOUR INCConsumer Cyclical$3.17B
3.30%
13LCID
LUCID GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$2.87B
2.99%
14AEO
AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INCConsumer Cyclical$2.85B
2.97%
15PENN
PENN ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$2.75B
2.87%
16PTON
PELOTON INTERACTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$2.55B
2.66%
17KSS
KOHLS CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.96B
2.04%
18CPRI
CAPRI HOLDINGS LTDConsumer Cyclical$1.89B
1.96%
19RVLV
REVOLVE GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$1.78B
1.85%
20FIGS
FIGS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.72B
1.79%
21LEG
LEGGETT & PLATT INCConsumer Cyclical$1.50B
1.57%
22CRI
CARTERS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.40B
1.46%
23LGIH
LGI HOMES INCConsumer Cyclical$1.36B
1.41%
24REAL
THEREALREAL INCConsumer Cyclical$1.35B
1.41%
25THRM
GENTHERM INCConsumer Cyclical$1.10B
1.15%
26TDUP
THREDUP INCConsumer Cyclical$852M
0.89%
27FOXF
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$798M
0.83%
28BALY
BALLY'S CORPConsumer Cyclical$688M
0.72%
29PACK
RANPAK HOLDINGS CORPConsumer Cyclical$583M
0.61%
30XMAX
XMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$541M
0.56%
31MNRO
MONRO INCConsumer Cyclical$509M
0.53%
32JOUT
JOHNSON OUTDOORS INCConsumer Cyclical$485M
0.50%
33DIN
DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INCConsumer Cyclical$456M
0.47%
34BNED
BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION INCConsumer Cyclical$437M
0.45%
35GCO
GENESCO INCConsumer Cyclical$411M
0.43%
36BBBY
BED BATH & BEYOND INCConsumer Cyclical$372M
0.39%
37LE
LANDS' END INCConsumer Cyclical$357M
0.37%
38FNKO
FUNKO INCConsumer Cyclical$326M
0.34%
39ZUMZ
ZUMIEZ INCConsumer Cyclical$315M
0.33%
40DBI
DESIGNER BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$290M
0.30%
41JACK
JACK IN THE BOX INCConsumer Cyclical$286M
0.30%
42LOVE
LOVESAC COConsumer Cyclical$267M
0.28%
43RDNW
RIDENOW GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$229M
0.24%
44ONEW
ONEWATER MARINE INCConsumer Cyclical$224M
0.23%
45SRI
STONERIDGE INCConsumer Cyclical$197M
0.20%
46LCUT
LIFETIME BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$195M
0.20%
47COOK
TRAEGER INCConsumer Cyclical$193M
0.20%
48LEE
LEE ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$175M
0.18%
49CHPT
CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$146M
0.15%
50RRGB
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INCConsumer Cyclical$130M
0.14%
51UFI
UNIFI INCConsumer Cyclical$118M
0.12%
52MED
MEDIFAST INCConsumer Cyclical$114M
0.12%
53INTG
INTERGROUP CORPConsumer Cyclical$84M
0.09%
54VNCE
VINCE HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$83M
0.09%
55BARK
BARK INCConsumer Cyclical$82M
0.09%
56RGS
REGIS CORPConsumer Cyclical$74M
0.08%
57NDLS
NOODLES & COConsumer Cyclical$66M
0.07%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $96.02B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

2 sectors
Consumer Cyclical
96.6%
Communication Services
3.4%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

57 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
·
·
15%2
14%6
14%5
16%5
2%10
4%7
3%5

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 310-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.9B, Small < $1.3B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.62, Growth < 0.38 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 55% toward Large, 63% toward Growth. +33% unclassified (17 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt55% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt63% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 2002July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 57 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
6
Failed
0
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 57 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.6)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
16.6%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.3%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 283 monthly observations · about 2.8 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.78x
within
parametric
1.93x
within
cornish fisher
2.17x
over

The estimators agree, which is mild evidence the number isn’t an artefact of one method.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1985
Entirely since publication
All 283 months of our record post-date the 1985 paper.
Sharpe 0.071.6% p.a.January 2003July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

22 windows
Positive windows
55%
12 of 22 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.37
Sharpe, January 2003 – December 2005
January 2003July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.12
Dispersion
0.60
Best window
1.02

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (22 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 2003
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.-14.3%-16.9%
3 yearsp.a.7.5%0.2%
5 yearsp.a.4.8%-1.1%
10 yearsp.a.11.9%-3.3%
Since inceptionp.a.8.8%-1.2%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo-1.1%-2.8%
2025-5.7%20.9%
202425.5%-20.7%
202330.1%-19.4%
2022-18.5%42.4%
202148.6%18.6%
202035.6%-10.1%
201915.2%-7.8%
2018-12.6%-27.7%
201727.6%-6.6%
20162.8%3.5%
2015-16.2%-18.5%
20142.1%-0.2%
201361.1%13.2%
201227.2%15.7%
2011-10.6%-17.2%
201046.3%14.6%
200975.3%34.7%
2008-51.6%14.3%
2007-23.7%-0.9%
200613.9%16.5%
2005-11.2%-26.1%
200410.0%-17.4%
200334.4%-7.7%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FLRC
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2022-04-24 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$96.02B

Methodology

The Foundry Consumer Cyclical Long-Term Reversal Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Consumer Cyclical common stocks each month by a Long-Term Reversal signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.