ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
reversal factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Financial Services Long-Term Reversal Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FLRFHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−69%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
97
cap-weighted
Inception
Aug 2019
placeholder
Full Sharpe
-0.23
Ann. Return (LS)
-3.7%
Ann. Volatility
15.6%
Max Drawdown
-78.8%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
-0.19
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-1.8%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-0.45
not significant
Monthly turnover
16%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-69%
over 283 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.32
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
7.8%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
-0.23
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
11.5%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

283 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

97 of 97 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1PYPL
PAYPAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$49.89B
15.67%
2RKT
ROCKET COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$41.14B
12.92%
3TROW
PRICE T ROWE GROUP INCFinancial Services$25.14B
7.90%
4ALLY
ALLY FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$13.99B
4.39%
5IVZ
INVESCO LTDFinancial Services$13.13B
4.12%
6COLB
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM INCFinancial Services$9.62B
3.02%
7WULF
TERAWULF INCFinancial Services$9.00B
2.83%
8WAL
WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATIONFinancial Services$8.99B
2.82%
9VLY
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORPFinancial Services$8.28B
2.60%
10LNC
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$8.08B
2.54%
11CIFR
CIPHER DIGITAL INCFinancial Services$7.18B
2.26%
12GBCI
GLACIER BANCORP INCFinancial Services$6.97B
2.19%
13RIOT
RIOT PLATFORMS INCFinancial Services$6.91B
2.17%
14FLG
FLAGSTAR BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATIONFinancial Services$6.21B
1.95%
15EBC
EASTERN BANKSHARES INCFinancial Services$5.32B
1.67%
16LMND
LEMONADE INCFinancial Services$5.16B
1.62%
17TFSL
TFS FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$5.13B
1.61%
18FFIN
FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES INCFinancial Services$5.06B
1.59%
19MARA
MARA HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.08B
1.28%
20MKTX
MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.04B
1.27%
21BFH
BREAD FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.01B
1.26%
22FIBK
FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM INCFinancial Services$3.81B
1.20%
23CBU
COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM INCFinancial Services$3.62B
1.14%
24MCHB
MECHANICS BANCORPFinancial Services$3.59B
1.13%
25CLSK
CLEANSPARK INCFinancial Services$3.34B
1.05%
26SFNC
SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$3.33B
1.05%
27BANC
BANC OF CALIFORNIA INCFinancial Services$3.27B
1.03%
28UPST
UPSTART HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$2.82B
0.89%
29WU
WESTERN UNION COFinancial Services$2.77B
0.87%
30CLBK
COLUMBIA FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$2.44B
0.77%
31HAPN
HAPPEN INCFinancial Services$2.22B
0.70%
32LOB
LIVE OAK BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$1.97B
0.62%
33ECPG
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.96B
0.61%
34GSHD
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE INCFinancial Services$1.93B
0.61%
35TFIN
TRIUMPH FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$1.92B
0.60%
36DCOM
DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$1.78B
0.56%
37WD
WALKER & DUNLOP INCFinancial Services$1.72B
0.54%
38OBK
ORIGIN BANCORP INCFinancial Services$1.62B
0.51%
39TRUP
TRUPANION INCFinancial Services$1.16B
0.37%
40VRTS
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS INCFinancial Services$1.10B
0.35%
41CFFN
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.34%
42AMTB
AMERANT BANCORP INCFinancial Services$1.03B
0.32%
43ABX
ABACUS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT INCFinancial Services$994M
0.31%
44ROOT
ROOT INCFinancial Services$944M
0.30%
45WRLD
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPFinancial Services$891M
0.28%
46EGBN
EAGLE BANCORP INCFinancial Services$835M
0.26%
47PGC
PEAPACK GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$817M
0.26%
48NAVI
NAVIENT CORPFinancial Services$813M
0.26%
49ALRS
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$808M
0.25%
50HIPO
HIPPO HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$764M
0.24%
51GDOT
GREEN DOT CORPFinancial Services$760M
0.24%
52WASH
WASHINGTON TRUST BANCORP INCFinancial Services$698M
0.22%
53PRAA
PRA GROUP INCFinancial Services$691M
0.22%
54AROW
ARROW FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$687M
0.22%
55TREE
LENDINGTREE INCFinancial Services$645M
0.20%
56MSBI
MIDLAND STATES BANCORP INCFinancial Services$645M
0.20%
57NFBK
NORTHFIELD BANCORP INCFinancial Services$621M
0.19%
58KRNY
KEARNY FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$615M
0.19%
59SFST
SOUTHERN FIRST BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$588M
0.18%
60BMRC
BANK OF MARIN BANCORPFinancial Services$468M
0.15%
61WTBA
WEST BANCORPORATION INCFinancial Services$460M
0.14%
62RBB
RBB BANCORPFinancial Services$458M
0.14%
63BETR
BETTER HOME & FINANCE HOLDING COFinancial Services$442M
0.14%
64NEWT
NEWTEKONE INCFinancial Services$439M
0.14%
65CZNC
CITIZENS & NORTHERN CORPFinancial Services$418M
0.13%
66FRST
PRIMIS FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$400M
0.13%
67ABTC
AMERICAN BITCOIN CORPFinancial Services$386M
0.12%
68RM
REGIONAL MANAGEMENT CORPFinancial Services$384M
0.12%
69MVBF
MVB FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$377M
0.12%
70WSBF
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$356M
0.11%
71MBI
MBIA INCFinancial Services$333M
0.10%
72NODK
NI HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$326M
0.10%
73MYFW
FIRST WESTERN FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$323M
0.10%
74FVCB
FVCBANKCORP INCFinancial Services$321M
0.10%
75OSG
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INCFinancial Services$275M
0.09%
76OPRT
OPORTUN FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$274M
0.09%
77CIA
CITIZENS INCFinancial Services$272M
0.09%
78ATLO
AMES NATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$262M
0.08%
79RILY
BRC GROUP HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$254M
0.08%
80NKSH
NATIONAL BANKSHARES INCFinancial Services$233M
0.07%
81INBK
FIRST INTERNET BANCORPFinancial Services$233M
0.07%
82FOA
FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$216M
0.07%
83WHG
WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INCFinancial Services$188M
0.06%
84EBMT
EAGLE BANCORP MONTANA INCFinancial Services$185M
0.06%
85BCBP
BCB BANCORP INCFinancial Services$179M
0.06%
86MNSB
MAINSTREET BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$172M
0.05%
87FGBI
FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$164M
0.05%
88LSBK
LAKE SHORE BANCORP INCFinancial Services$135M
0.04%
89GHI
GREYSTONE HOUSING IMPACT INVESTORS LPFinancial Services$123M
0.04%
90BSBK
BOGOTA FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$116M
0.04%
91FNWB
FIRST NORTHWEST BANCORPFinancial Services$116M
0.04%
92RVSB
RIVERVIEW BANCORP INCFinancial Services$107M
0.03%
93AUBN
AUBURN NATIONAL BANCORPORATION INCFinancial Services$93M
0.03%
94BCIC
BCP INVESTMENT CORPFinancial Services$91M
0.03%
95BYFC
BROADWAY FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$89M
0.03%
96OPHC
OPTIMUMBANK HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$74M
0.02%
97HFBL
HOME FEDERAL BANCORP INC OF LOUISIANAFinancial Services$70M
0.02%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $318.44B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Financial Services
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

97 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
14%5
28%4
24%7
6%10
6%9
9%14
2%22
2%18
<1%3

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 554-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $4.3B, Small < $753M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.61, Growth < 0.39 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 84% toward Large, 57% toward Growth. +7% unclassified (5 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt84% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt57% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 2002July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 97 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
5
Failed
1
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • Days required to liquidate the largest position at 20% of one day's dollar volume.

    Required
    <= 7.0 days
    Actual
    11.2 days
    Margin
    -4.2 days
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 97 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.3)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
17.8%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.3%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 283 monthly observations · about 2.8 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.91x
within
parametric
1.68x
within
cornish fisher
2.04x
over

The estimators differ materially in value but agree on the verdict. Historical and Gaussian fund VaR differ by 17%; both still land on the same side of the 2x limit.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1985
Entirely since publication
All 283 months of our record post-date the 1985 paper.
Sharpe -0.23-3.7% p.a.January 2003July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

22 windows
Positive windows
27%
6 of 22 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.19
Sharpe, January 2009 – December 2011
January 2003July 2026
Median Sharpe
-0.17
Dispersion
0.53
Best window
0.70

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (22 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 2003
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.2.2%-4.2%
3 yearsp.a.12.4%-5.1%
5 yearsp.a.7.0%-2.7%
10 yearsp.a.9.8%-5.5%
Since inceptionp.a.4.9%-4.8%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo2.3%2.3%
2025-3.5%-17.3%
202433.8%4.4%
20234.7%-16.7%
2022-5.9%12.2%
202147.6%18.6%
2020-12.3%-19.1%
201930.1%-6.2%
2018-14.7%-16.0%
201718.2%-12.7%
20167.6%-1.6%
2015-5.3%-8.0%
201417.8%5.6%
201344.3%-1.6%
201252.8%30.8%
2011-37.2%-34.6%
20108.1%-0.6%
2009-23.4%-38.2%
2008-42.6%11.1%
2007-4.3%7.9%
200619.8%1.4%
20057.1%4.6%
20046.0%-14.8%
200335.2%7.8%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FLRF
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2019-08-02 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$318.44B

Methodology

The Foundry Financial Services Long-Term Reversal Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Financial Services common stocks each month by a Long-Term Reversal signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.