ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
leverage factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Consumer Cyclical Leverage Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FLECHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−72%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
62
cap-weighted
Inception
Jun 2022
placeholder
Full Sharpe
-0.07
Ann. Return (LS)
-1.8%
Ann. Volatility
23.8%
Max Drawdown
-87.9%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.12
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-0.7%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-0.10
not significant
Monthly turnover
10%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-72%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.30
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
9.1%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
-0.07
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
10.9%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

62 of 62 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1GM
GENERAL MOTORS COConsumer Cyclical$68.59B
29.20%
2F
FORD MOTOR COConsumer Cyclical$56.70B
24.14%
3MGM
MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONALConsumer Cyclical$11.80B
5.03%
4KMX
CARMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$8.14B
3.46%
5LAD
LITHIA MOTORS INCConsumer Cyclical$7.65B
3.26%
6AN
AUTONATION INCConsumer Cyclical$6.88B
2.93%
7M
MACY'S INCConsumer Cyclical$6.23B
2.65%
8CZR
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$6.08B
2.59%
9ABG
ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$4.10B
1.75%
10HGV
HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INCConsumer Cyclical$3.98B
1.70%
11GPI
GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$3.88B
1.65%
12PVH
PVH CORPConsumer Cyclical$3.60B
1.53%
13VAC
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPConsumer Cyclical$3.43B
1.46%
14GPK
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COConsumer Cyclical$3.20B
1.36%
15AAP
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INCConsumer Cyclical$3.19B
1.36%
16LCID
LUCID GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$2.87B
1.22%
17PENN
PENN ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$2.75B
1.17%
18WHR
WHIRLPOOL CORPConsumer Cyclical$2.48B
1.06%
19GT
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COConsumer Cyclical$2.10B
0.89%
20KSS
KOHLS CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.96B
0.84%
21CPRI
CAPRI HOLDINGS LTDConsumer Cyclical$1.89B
0.80%
22FUN
SIX FLAGS ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATIONConsumer Cyclical$1.79B
0.76%
23ADNT
ADIENT PLCConsumer Cyclical$1.55B
0.66%
24LEG
LEGGETT & PLATT INCConsumer Cyclical$1.50B
0.64%
25MLKN
MILLERKNOLL INCConsumer Cyclical$1.49B
0.64%
26WEN
WENDY'S COConsumer Cyclical$1.48B
0.63%
27OI
O-I GLASS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.40B
0.59%
28DCH
DAUCH CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.29B
0.55%
29LUCK
LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.01B
0.43%
30BZH
BEAZER HOMES USA INCConsumer Cyclical$900M
0.38%
31ARKO
ARKO CORPConsumer Cyclical$893M
0.38%
32HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$772M
0.33%
33HZO
MARINEMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$760M
0.32%
34BLMN
BLOOMIN' BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$731M
0.31%
35BALY
BALLY'S CORPConsumer Cyclical$688M
0.29%
36CWH
CAMPING WORLD HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$637M
0.27%
37CSV
CARRIAGE SERVICES INCConsumer Cyclical$598M
0.25%
38MNRO
MONRO INCConsumer Cyclical$509M
0.22%
39CPS
COOPER-STANDARD HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$490M
0.21%
40DIN
DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INCConsumer Cyclical$456M
0.19%
41GCO
GENESCO INCConsumer Cyclical$411M
0.17%
42CAL
CALERES INCConsumer Cyclical$398M
0.17%
43XPOF
XPONENTIAL FITNESS INCConsumer Cyclical$328M
0.14%
44DBI
DESIGNER BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$290M
0.12%
45JACK
JACK IN THE BOX INCConsumer Cyclical$286M
0.12%
46MPAA
MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA INCConsumer Cyclical$265M
0.11%
47RDNW
RIDENOW GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$229M
0.10%
48ONEW
ONEWATER MARINE INCConsumer Cyclical$224M
0.10%
49RICK
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$200M
0.09%
50SRI
STONERIDGE INCConsumer Cyclical$197M
0.08%
51LCUT
LIFETIME BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$195M
0.08%
52COOK
TRAEGER INCConsumer Cyclical$193M
0.08%
53LEE
LEE ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$175M
0.07%
54INSE
INSPIRED ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$174M
0.07%
55CHPT
CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$146M
0.06%
56WW
WW INTERNATIONAL INCConsumer Cyclical$146M
0.06%
57RRGB
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INCConsumer Cyclical$130M
0.06%
58AKA
AKA BRANDS HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$119M
0.05%
59INTG
INTERGROUP CORPConsumer Cyclical$84M
0.04%
60VNCE
VINCE HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$83M
0.04%
61RGS
REGIS CORPConsumer Cyclical$74M
0.03%
62NDLS
NOODLES & COConsumer Cyclical$66M
0.03%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $234.87B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Consumer Cyclical
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

62 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
30%3
36%3
5%1
8%8
5%3
3%3
2%10
1%3
1%6

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 310-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.9B, Small < $1.3B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.62, Growth < 0.38 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 87% toward Large, 33% toward Growth. +10% unclassified (22 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt87% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt33% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 62 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    56.6%
    Margin
    -18.4%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    29.2%
    Margin
    -4.2%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 62 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.2 (95% CI 1.4-2.6)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
21.6%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.25x
over
parametric
1.98x
within
cornish fisher
2.50x
over

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.25 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.98 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1988
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1988 paper.
Sharpe -0.07-1.8% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
38%
10 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.05
Sharpe, January 2017 – December 2019
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
-0.14
Dispersion
0.48
Best window
0.70

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.31.1%20.8%
3 yearsp.a.8.8%-5.8%
5 yearsp.a.3.8%-1.2%
10 yearsp.a.11.1%-4.7%
Since inceptionp.a.4.5%-4.5%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo8.6%8.6%
202517.1%9.9%
20243.8%-25.3%
202322.0%-11.9%
2022-33.1%20.4%
202166.9%54.9%
202032.3%-31.5%
201921.6%-3.5%
2018-23.9%-35.4%
201719.9%-12.5%
201612.8%10.3%
2015-8.1%-20.4%
20144.7%-4.9%
201344.9%-4.6%
201231.9%18.7%
2011-26.5%-34.3%
201040.9%14.2%
2009116.3%52.3%
2008-69.3%-46.1%
2007-21.9%-19.7%
200617.4%11.1%
2005-14.3%-6.6%
200411.5%-8.6%
200351.2%10.9%
2002-19.6%10.6%
20018.1%-4.4%
2000-16.9%34.2%
1999-6.3%-26.1%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FLEC
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2022-06-19 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$234.87B

Methodology

The Foundry Consumer Cyclical Leverage Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Consumer Cyclical common stocks each month by a Leverage signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.