ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
momentum factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Energy 12-Month Momentum Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FMOEHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−74%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
26
cap-weighted
Inception
Jul 2021
placeholder
Full Sharpe
-0.03
Ann. Return (LS)
-0.7%
Ann. Volatility
27.5%
Max Drawdown
-84.7%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
-0.25
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-1.4%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-0.14
not significant
Monthly turnover
24%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-74%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.50
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
14.1%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
-0.03
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
14.8%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

26 of 26 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1VLO
VALERO ENERGY CORPEnergy$91.95B
33.13%
2TRGP
TARGA RESOURCES CORPEnergy$60.72B
21.88%
3FTI
TECHNIPFMC PLCEnergy$28.73B
10.35%
4DINO
HF SINCLAIR CORPEnergy$15.97B
5.76%
5APA
APA CORPEnergy$12.45B
4.49%
6PBF
PBF ENERGY INCEnergy$7.42B
2.68%
7AROC
ARCHROCK INCEnergy$6.51B
2.35%
8KGS
KODIAK GAS SERVICES INCEnergy$5.79B
2.09%
9RIG
TRANSOCEAN LTDEnergy$5.74B
2.07%
10SEI
SOLARIS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INCEnergy$4.43B
1.60%
11INSW
INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INCEnergy$4.29B
1.55%
12OII
OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INCEnergy$4.22B
1.52%
13LBRT
LIBERTY ENERGY INCEnergy$3.89B
1.40%
14DK
DELEK US HOLDINGS INCEnergy$3.88B
1.40%
15PARR
PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INCEnergy$3.82B
1.38%
16CLMT
CALUMET INCEnergy$3.73B
1.35%
17HP
HELMERICH & PAYNE INCEnergy$3.41B
1.23%
18NGL
NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LPEnergy$1.89B
0.68%
19PUMP
PROPETRO HOLDING CORPEnergy$1.59B
0.57%
20PBT
PERMIAN BASIN ROYALTY TRUSTEnergy$1.32B
0.48%
21TTI
TETRA TECHNOLOGIES INCEnergy$1.25B
0.45%
22NBR
NABORS INDUSTRIES LTDEnergy$1.24B
0.45%
23NPKI
NPK INTERNATIONAL INCEnergy$1.21B
0.44%
24FTK
FLOTEK INDUSTRIES INCEnergy$947M
0.34%
25FET
FORUM ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES INCEnergy$593M
0.21%
26NGS
NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP INCEnergy$488M
0.18%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $277.51B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Energy
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

26 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
13%3
33%1
32%2
6%4
3%2
6%3
1%2
<1%1
2%5

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 137-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $7.1B, Small < $1.8B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.64, Growth < 0.40 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 89% toward Large, 60% toward Growth. +3% unclassified (3 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt89% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt60% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 26 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    48.9%
    Margin
    -26.1%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    33.1%
    Margin
    -8.1%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied
  • At least 50% of total assets must sit in cash, government securities, other RICs, and other securities limited to 5% of assets and 10% of the issuer's voting securities per issuer.

    Required
    >= 50.0%
    Actual
    48.9%
    Margin
    -1.1%

    Arithmetically entailed by '40 Act 5(b)(1) diversification (75%/5% asset leg) — it cannot fail independently, so it is reported outside the tally rather than counted as a separate check.

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 26 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.3 (95% CI 1.5-2.4)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
21.7%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.25x
over
parametric
1.79x
within
cornish fisher
1.97x
within

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.25 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.79 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1993
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1993 paper.
Sharpe -0.03-0.7% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
58%
15 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.72
Sharpe, January 2016 – December 2018
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.23
Dispersion
0.58
Best window
1.09

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.26.4%-22.4%
3 yearsp.a.19.9%9.3%
5 yearsp.a.28.1%-0.4%
10 yearsp.a.10.2%-10.3%
Since inceptionp.a.10.5%-4.8%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo36.8%2.5%
2025-7.9%-25.6%
202437.1%53.2%
20233.4%-12.5%
202251.0%-17.3%
202161.6%-0.0%
2020-45.3%-63.6%
201915.2%14.8%
2018-16.5%-0.0%
20173.3%9.5%
20167.8%-46.8%
2015-19.2%34.9%
20146.8%43.5%
201336.3%5.0%
20125.7%2.5%
2011-1.3%4.1%
201046.1%30.9%
200914.8%-57.3%
2008-54.1%-5.8%
200720.0%2.0%
20067.7%-7.8%
200570.3%30.6%
200454.3%4.5%
200350.5%13.0%
2002-6.4%36.9%
2001-5.8%5.2%
200030.8%-14.7%
199910.6%-38.1%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FMOE
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2021-07-13 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$277.51B

Methodology

The Foundry Energy 12-Month Momentum Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Energy common stocks each month by a 12-Month Momentum signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.