ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
momentum factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Energy 6-Month Momentum Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FMOEHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−54%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
27
cap-weighted
Inception
Sep 2019
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.03
Ann. Return (LS)
0.8%
Ann. Volatility
25.6%
Max Drawdown
-74.3%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.02
Test FF5 α (ann.)
6.4%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.66
not significant
Monthly turnover
33%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-54%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.54
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
15.7%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.03
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
14.9%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

27 of 27 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1VLO
VALERO ENERGY CORPEnergy$91.95B
21.72%
2MPC
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPEnergy$91.26B
21.55%
3TRGP
TARGA RESOURCES CORPEnergy$60.72B
14.34%
4VG
VENTURE GLOBAL INCEnergy$34.28B
8.10%
5FTI
TECHNIPFMC PLCEnergy$28.73B
6.79%
6TPL
TEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPEnergy$28.67B
6.77%
7DINO
HF SINCLAIR CORPEnergy$15.97B
3.77%
8LB
LANDBRIDGE CO LLCEnergy$8.89B
2.10%
9PBF
PBF ENERGY INCEnergy$7.42B
1.75%
10AROC
ARCHROCK INCEnergy$6.51B
1.54%
11KGS
KODIAK GAS SERVICES INCEnergy$5.79B
1.37%
12SEI
SOLARIS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INCEnergy$4.43B
1.05%
13INSW
INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INCEnergy$4.29B
1.01%
14WBI
WATERBRIDGE INFRASTRUCTURE LLCEnergy$4.29B
1.01%
15OII
OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INCEnergy$4.22B
1.00%
16DK
DELEK US HOLDINGS INCEnergy$3.88B
0.92%
17PARR
PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS INCEnergy$3.82B
0.90%
18PTEN
PATTERSON UTI ENERGY INCEnergy$3.80B
0.90%
19CLMT
CALUMET INCEnergy$3.73B
0.88%
20NGL
NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LPEnergy$1.89B
0.45%
21AESI
ATLAS ENERGY SOLUTIONS INCEnergy$1.76B
0.42%
22LPG
DORIAN LPG LTDEnergy$1.76B
0.41%
23PUMP
PROPETRO HOLDING CORPEnergy$1.59B
0.38%
24PBT
PERMIAN BASIN ROYALTY TRUSTEnergy$1.32B
0.31%
25NBR
NABORS INDUSTRIES LTDEnergy$1.24B
0.29%
26HPK
HIGHPEAK ENERGY INCEnergy$931M
0.22%
27GTE
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INCEnergy$233M
0.06%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $423.40B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Energy
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

27 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
6%2
30%2
52%5
2%2
2%2
5%4
1%4
<1%2
<1%1

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 137-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $7.1B, Small < $1.8B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.64, Growth < 0.40 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 93% toward Large, 75% toward Growth. +2% unclassified (3 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt93% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt75% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 27 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
5
Failed
1
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    50.7%
    Margin
    -24.3%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied
  • At least 50% of total assets must sit in cash, government securities, other RICs, and other securities limited to 5% of assets and 10% of the issuer's voting securities per issuer.

    Required
    >= 50.0%
    Actual
    50.7%
    Margin
    0.7%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

    Arithmetically entailed by '40 Act 5(b)(1) diversification (75%/5% asset leg) — it cannot fail independently, so it is reported outside the tally rather than counted as a separate check.

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

1 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 27 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.2 (95% CI 1.5-2.3)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
21.1%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.19x
over
parametric
1.83x
within
cornish fisher
2.14x
over

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.19 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.83 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1993
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1993 paper.
Sharpe 0.030.8% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
69%
18 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.94
Sharpe, January 1999 – December 2001
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.12
Dispersion
0.44
Best window
0.92

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.23.2%-23.9%
3 yearsp.a.18.9%5.4%
5 yearsp.a.21.4%-4.1%
10 yearsp.a.11.8%-2.7%
Since inceptionp.a.12.0%-2.8%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo30.0%-12.3%
2025-4.9%-12.1%
202441.4%44.7%
2023-8.3%-20.2%
202229.4%-24.4%
202193.5%34.4%
2020-13.3%-8.4%
20196.5%-6.8%
2018-23.6%5.4%
2017-8.0%-10.0%
201629.4%-26.0%
2015-13.8%31.6%
2014-2.0%26.1%
201328.6%-4.2%
20124.3%-2.6%
20115.2%9.3%
201046.2%25.2%
200921.1%-39.0%
2008-51.8%9.4%
200720.2%-0.7%
200614.4%9.3%
200555.0%20.9%
200457.2%7.3%
200347.6%15.0%
2002-7.9%20.8%
2001-9.6%-26.5%
200054.0%-22.6%
19995.1%-46.2%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FMOE
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2019-09-03 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$423.40B

Methodology

The Foundry Energy 6-Month Momentum Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Energy common stocks each month by a 6-Month Momentum signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.