ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
value factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Consumer Cyclical OCFP Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FOCCHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−64%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
61
cap-weighted
Inception
Feb 2020
placeholder
Full Sharpe
-0.03
Ann. Return (LS)
-0.8%
Ann. Volatility
24.2%
Max Drawdown
-89.0%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.16
Test FF5 α (ann.)
0.8%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.09
not significant
Monthly turnover
16%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-64%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.39
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
11.0%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
-0.03
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
11.7%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

61 of 61 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1GM
GENERAL MOTORS COConsumer Cyclical$68.59B
25.59%
2F
FORD MOTOR COConsumer Cyclical$56.70B
21.16%
3LULU
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INCConsumer Cyclical$12.61B
4.71%
4MGM
MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONALConsumer Cyclical$11.80B
4.40%
5KMX
CARMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$8.14B
3.04%
6GAP
GAP INCConsumer Cyclical$7.33B
2.73%
7LEA
LEAR CORPConsumer Cyclical$7.10B
2.65%
8MHK
MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$6.80B
2.54%
9LKQ
LKQ CORPConsumer Cyclical$6.47B
2.41%
10M
MACY'S INCConsumer Cyclical$6.23B
2.32%
11CZR
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$6.08B
2.27%
12HRB
H&R BLOCK INCConsumer Cyclical$5.33B
1.99%
13ANF
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH COConsumer Cyclical$4.23B
1.58%
14BBWI
BATH & BODY WORKS INCConsumer Cyclical$4.21B
1.57%
15ABG
ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$4.10B
1.53%
16GPI
GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$3.88B
1.45%
17SIG
SIGNET JEWELERS LTDConsumer Cyclical$3.60B
1.35%
18PVH
PVH CORPConsumer Cyclical$3.60B
1.34%
19GPK
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COConsumer Cyclical$3.20B
1.19%
20AEO
AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INCConsumer Cyclical$2.85B
1.06%
21PENN
PENN ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$2.75B
1.03%
22PTON
PELOTON INTERACTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$2.55B
0.95%
23PRKS
UNITED PARKS & RESORTS INCConsumer Cyclical$2.13B
0.79%
24GT
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COConsumer Cyclical$2.10B
0.78%
25KSS
KOHLS CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.96B
0.73%
26FUN
SIX FLAGS ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATIONConsumer Cyclical$1.79B
0.67%
27ADNT
ADIENT PLCConsumer Cyclical$1.55B
0.58%
28LEG
LEGGETT & PLATT INCConsumer Cyclical$1.50B
0.56%
29WEN
WENDY'S COConsumer Cyclical$1.48B
0.55%
30SBH
SALLY BEAUTY HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.42B
0.53%
31OI
O-I GLASS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.40B
0.52%
32DCH
DAUCH CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.29B
0.48%
33CBRL
CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE INCConsumer Cyclical$1.20B
0.45%
34ACEL
ACCEL ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$989M
0.37%
35ARKO
ARKO CORPConsumer Cyclical$893M
0.33%
36WGO
WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$868M
0.32%
37HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$772M
0.29%
38FWRG
FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$768M
0.29%
39HZO
MARINEMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$760M
0.28%
40BLMN
BLOOMIN' BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$731M
0.27%
41CARS
CARSCOM INCConsumer Cyclical$670M
0.25%
42OXM
OXFORD INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$604M
0.23%
43MLR
MILLER INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$566M
0.21%
44DIN
DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INCConsumer Cyclical$456M
0.17%
45GCO
GENESCO INCConsumer Cyclical$411M
0.15%
46CAL
CALERES INCConsumer Cyclical$398M
0.15%
47SHOE
SHOE CARNIVAL INCConsumer Cyclical$393M
0.15%
48STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORPConsumer Cyclical$344M
0.13%
49DBI
DESIGNER BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$290M
0.11%
50JACK
JACK IN THE BOX INCConsumer Cyclical$286M
0.11%
51LOVE
LOVESAC COConsumer Cyclical$267M
0.10%
52JILL
JJILL INCConsumer Cyclical$248M
0.09%
53ONEW
ONEWATER MARINE INCConsumer Cyclical$224M
0.08%
54RICK
RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$200M
0.07%
55COOK
TRAEGER INCConsumer Cyclical$193M
0.07%
56INSE
INSPIRED ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$174M
0.06%
57RRGB
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INCConsumer Cyclical$130M
0.05%
58UFI
UNIFI INCConsumer Cyclical$118M
0.04%
59KEQU
KEWAUNEE SCIENTIFIC CORPConsumer Cyclical$109M
0.04%
60BDL
FLANIGANS ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$76M
0.03%
61RGS
REGIS CORPConsumer Cyclical$74M
0.03%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $267.99B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Consumer Cyclical
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

61 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
36%6
31%3
4%1
14%13
3%2
2%2
1%9
3%11
1%6

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 310-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.9B, Small < $1.3B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.62, Growth < 0.38 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 85% toward Large, 27% toward Growth. +5% unclassified (8 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt85% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt27% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 61 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
3
Failed
3
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    63.2%
    Margin
    -11.8%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    25.6%
    Margin
    -0.6%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

  • Days required to liquidate the largest position at 20% of one day's dollar volume.

    Required
    <= 7.0 days
    Actual
    21.4 days
    Margin
    -14.4 days
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

1 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 61 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.1 (95% CI 1.4-2.5)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
20.2%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.10x
over
parametric
1.84x
within
cornish fisher
2.25x
over

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.10 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.84 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 2004
Before publication (pre-2004)
-0.07
Sharpe · -1.9% p.a.
January 1999December 2004 · 72 mo
Since publication
-0.02
Sharpe · -0.4% p.a.
January 2005July 2026 · 259 mo
Change in Sharpe+0.06Sharpe strengthened since publication

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
46%
12 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.54
Sharpe, January 2018 – December 2020
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
-0.12
Dispersion
0.64
Best window
1.78

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.35.5%17.2%
3 yearsp.a.16.9%2.1%
5 yearsp.a.9.3%11.7%
10 yearsp.a.11.3%-4.5%
Since inceptionp.a.7.1%-3.6%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo9.6%23.5%
202527.9%18.0%
20246.6%-35.6%
202329.5%5.0%
2022-28.6%49.8%
202162.1%86.6%
202013.5%-54.4%
201912.9%-17.3%
2018-16.7%-31.5%
201714.6%-19.5%
20169.5%6.4%
2015-10.7%-22.6%
20144.0%7.1%
201338.1%-8.7%
201229.6%13.2%
2011-9.0%-3.4%
201039.6%-5.9%
2009109.8%43.8%
2008-59.1%-6.2%
2007-27.7%-28.0%
200616.3%3.7%
2005-6.4%3.7%
200413.7%-18.2%
200348.6%-4.9%
2002-13.2%4.1%
2001-1.5%-14.9%
2000-3.1%54.7%
199910.2%-31.1%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FOCC
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2020-02-16 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$267.99B

Methodology

The Foundry Consumer Cyclical OCFP Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Consumer Cyclical common stocks each month by a OCFP signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.