ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
value factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Industrials OCFP Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FOCIHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+5710%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
101
cap-weighted
Inception
Sep 2022
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.86
Ann. Return (LS)
16.7%
Ann. Volatility
19.4%
Max Drawdown
-37.7%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.71
Test FF5 α (ann.)
11.2%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
1.34
not significant
Monthly turnover
13%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
5710%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.63
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
16.1%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.86
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
-0.5%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

101 of 101 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1UPS
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INCIndustrials$100.06B
11.59%
2RCL
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTDIndustrials$76.96B
8.91%
3FDX
FEDEX CORPIndustrials$74.68B
8.65%
4URI
UNITED RENTALS INCIndustrials$65.48B
7.58%
5DAL
DELTA AIR LINES INCIndustrials$55.35B
6.41%
6UAL
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$37.46B
4.34%
7CCL
CARNIVAL CORP LTDIndustrials$36.17B
4.19%
8EXPE
EXPEDIA GROUP INCIndustrials$32.26B
3.74%
9SUNB
SUNBELT RENTALS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$30.08B
3.48%
10LUV
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES COIndustrials$23.50B
2.72%
11GPN
GLOBAL PAYMENTS INCIndustrials$21.29B
2.47%
12TXT
TEXTRON INCIndustrials$15.91B
1.84%
13UHAL
U-HAUL HOLDING COIndustrials$13.98B
1.62%
14CNH
CNH INDUSTRIAL NVIndustrials$13.19B
1.53%
15KNX
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$12.46B
1.44%
16HII
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$10.60B
1.23%
17R
RYDER SYSTEM INCIndustrials$10.52B
1.22%
18AAL
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INCIndustrials$9.91B
1.15%
19TTC
TORO COIndustrials$8.99B
1.04%
20OSK
OSHKOSH CORPIndustrials$8.96B
1.04%
21NCLH
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTDIndustrials$8.93B
1.03%
22AGCO
AGCO CORPIndustrials$8.35B
0.97%
23TTEK
TETRA TECH INCIndustrials$8.20B
0.95%
24AOS
SMITH A O CORPIndustrials$8.11B
0.94%
25BAH
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPIndustrials$7.81B
0.90%
26KEX
KIRBY CORPIndustrials$7.71B
0.89%
27MATX
MATSON INCIndustrials$6.72B
0.78%
28SNDR
SCHNEIDER NATIONAL INCIndustrials$6.69B
0.77%
29GATX
GATX CORPIndustrials$6.34B
0.73%
30MIDD
MIDDLEBY CORPIndustrials$6.02B
0.70%
31CAR
AVIS BUDGET GROUP INCIndustrials$5.67B
0.66%
32ADT
ADT INCIndustrials$5.54B
0.64%
33GVA
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCIndustrials$5.43B
0.63%
34ALK
ALASKA AIR GROUP INCIndustrials$5.07B
0.59%
35AMTM
AMENTUM HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$5.05B
0.59%
36HRI
HERC HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$4.99B
0.58%
37BCO
BRINKS COIndustrials$4.95B
0.57%
38WSC
WILLSCOT HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$4.93B
0.57%
39TNL
TRAVEL & LEISURE COIndustrials$4.57B
0.53%
40KBR
KBR INCIndustrials$4.45B
0.51%
41MDU
MDU RESOURCES GROUP INCIndustrials$4.42B
0.51%
42SEB
SEABOARD CORPIndustrials$4.34B
0.50%
43TPC
TUTOR PERINI CORPIndustrials$4.14B
0.48%
44KFY
KORN FERRYIndustrials$4.00B
0.46%
45SKYW
SKYWEST INCIndustrials$3.86B
0.45%
46MMS
MAXIMUS INCIndustrials$3.06B
0.35%
47CXT
CRANE NXT COIndustrials$2.95B
0.34%
48MGRC
MCGRATH RENTCORPIndustrials$2.90B
0.34%
49TRN
TRINITY INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$2.90B
0.34%
50ABM
ABM INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$2.79B
0.32%
51WERN
WERNER ENTERPRISES INCIndustrials$2.76B
0.32%
52TNET
TRINET GROUP INCIndustrials$2.74B
0.32%
53PBI
PITNEY BOWES INCIndustrials$2.51B
0.29%
54ATKR
ATKORE INCIndustrials$2.48B
0.29%
55CTOS
CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE INCIndustrials$2.35B
0.27%
56CBZ
CBIZ INCIndustrials$2.28B
0.26%
57ALGT
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COIndustrials$1.86B
0.22%
58PRG
PROG HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.86B
0.22%
59TRIP
TRIPADVISOR INCIndustrials$1.70B
0.20%
60ENOV
ENOVIS CORPIndustrials$1.56B
0.18%
61ICFI
ICF INTERNATIONAL INCIndustrials$1.43B
0.17%
62ENR
ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.39B
0.16%
63BV
BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.16%
64WLFC
WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORPIndustrials$1.35B
0.16%
65LZ
LEGALZOOMCOM INCIndustrials$1.33B
0.15%
66CVLG
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP INCIndustrials$1.19B
0.14%
67LNN
LINDSAY CORPIndustrials$1.17B
0.14%
68UPWK
UPWORK INCIndustrials$1.12B
0.13%
69RJET
REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$806M
0.09%
70ONT
ONTERRIS INCIndustrials$756M
0.09%
71KODK
EASTMAN KODAK COIndustrials$748M
0.09%
72SWBI
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS INCIndustrials$665M
0.08%
73RGR
STURM RUGER & CO INCIndustrials$604M
0.07%
74HY
HYSTER-YALE INCIndustrials$591M
0.07%
75KE
KIMBALL ELECTRONICS INCIndustrials$577M
0.07%
76PKOH
PARK OHIO HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$544M
0.06%
77EBF
ENNIS INCIndustrials$541M
0.06%
78KELYA
KELLY SERVICES INCIndustrials$531M
0.06%
79BBCP
CONCRETE PUMPING HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$531M
0.06%
80PANL
PANGAEA LOGISTICS SOLUTIONS LTDIndustrials$460M
0.05%
81TITN
TITAN MACHINERY INCIndustrials$446M
0.05%
82QUAD
QUAD/GRAPHICS INCIndustrials$446M
0.05%
83BWMN
BOWMAN CONSULTING GROUP LTDIndustrials$443M
0.05%
84FSTR
FOSTER L B COIndustrials$439M
0.05%
85FWRD
FORWARD AIR CORPIndustrials$435M
0.05%
86ULH
UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$377M
0.04%
87MTRX
MATRIX SERVICE COIndustrials$342M
0.04%
88TG
TREDEGAR CORPIndustrials$263M
0.03%
89FC
FRANKLIN COVEY COIndustrials$229M
0.03%
90EVI
EVI INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$213M
0.02%
91ALTG
ALTA EQUIPMENT GROUP INCIndustrials$208M
0.02%
92FORR
FORRESTER RESEARCH INCIndustrials$200M
0.02%
93PAL
PROFICIENT AUTO LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$197M
0.02%
94EML
EASTERN COIndustrials$154M
0.02%
95RAIL
FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INCIndustrials$144M
0.02%
96VATE
INNOVATE CORPIndustrials$123M
0.01%
97ULBI
ULTRALIFE CORPIndustrials$92M
0.01%
98MHH
MASTECH DIGITAL INCIndustrials$89M
0.01%
99CPBI
CENTRAL PLAINS BANCSHARES INCIndustrials$85M
0.01%
100DLHC
DLH HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$80M
0.01%
101TISI
TEAM INCIndustrials$75M
0.01%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $863.55B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Industrials
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

101 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
60%32
27%10
3%3
3%26
<1%4
1%4
<1%6
<1%2
<1%1

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 706-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $2.8B, Small < $315M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.60, Growth < 0.34 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 97% toward Large, 18% toward Growth. +6% unclassified (13 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt97% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt18% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 101 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
6
Failed
0
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 101 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.2 (95% CI 1.4-2.5)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
21.4%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.22x
over
parametric
1.61x
within
cornish fisher
2.00x
within

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.22 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.61 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 2004
Before publication (pre-2004)
1.56
Sharpe · 35.2% p.a.
January 1999December 2004 · 72 mo
Since publication
0.63
Sharpe · 11.5% p.a.
January 2005July 2026 · 259 mo
Change in Sharpe−0.93Sharpe weakened since publication67% of the prior annual return given up

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
85%
22 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.26
Sharpe, January 2018 – December 2020
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
1.02
Dispersion
0.64
Best window
2.02

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.29.1%23.0%
3 yearsp.a.21.0%17.6%
5 yearsp.a.15.2%16.5%
10 yearsp.a.13.1%15.8%
Since inceptionp.a.13.5%15.9%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo14.9%14.0%
20257.1%-14.8%
202440.3%37.0%
202321.5%4.8%
2022-8.9%33.2%
202138.9%63.6%
2020-12.6%-11.2%
201925.6%6.6%
2018-18.4%-8.7%
201713.5%33.8%
201628.4%20.4%
2015-7.9%0.1%
201429.3%36.9%
201357.6%15.3%
201223.0%18.4%
2011-3.7%3.0%
201035.3%2.3%
200910.8%-4.5%
2008-40.4%-5.8%
20073.5%-6.1%
200628.9%6.6%
200518.0%11.3%
200420.8%7.9%
200370.1%36.9%
2002-1.5%24.3%
200111.1%24.9%
200016.7%111.6%
199916.3%43.3%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FOCI
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2022-09-16 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$863.55B

Methodology

The Foundry Industrials OCFP Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Industrials common stocks each month by a OCFP signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.