ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
value factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Consumer Cyclical Sales-to-Price Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FSPCHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−10%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
61
cap-weighted
Inception
Aug 2020
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.10
Ann. Return (LS)
2.5%
Ann. Volatility
24.4%
Max Drawdown
-86.9%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.36
Test FF5 α (ann.)
8.0%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
1.06
not significant
Monthly turnover
11%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-10%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.43
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
13.4%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.10
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
10.9%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

61 of 61 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1GM
GENERAL MOTORS COConsumer Cyclical$68.59B
32.58%
2F
FORD MOTOR COConsumer Cyclical$56.70B
26.93%
3KMX
CARMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$8.14B
3.86%
4LAD
LITHIA MOTORS INCConsumer Cyclical$7.65B
3.63%
5LEA
LEAR CORPConsumer Cyclical$7.10B
3.37%
6AN
AUTONATION INCConsumer Cyclical$6.88B
3.27%
7M
MACY'S INCConsumer Cyclical$6.23B
2.96%
8ABG
ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$4.10B
1.95%
9GPI
GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$3.88B
1.84%
10GPK
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COConsumer Cyclical$3.20B
1.52%
11AAP
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INCConsumer Cyclical$3.19B
1.51%
12SAH
SONIC AUTOMOTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$3.17B
1.51%
13DAN
DANA INCConsumer Cyclical$2.87B
1.37%
14WHR
WHIRLPOOL CORPConsumer Cyclical$2.48B
1.18%
15GT
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COConsumer Cyclical$2.10B
1.00%
16KSS
KOHLS CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.96B
0.93%
17ADNT
ADIENT PLCConsumer Cyclical$1.55B
0.74%
18LEG
LEGGETT & PLATT INCConsumer Cyclical$1.50B
0.71%
19DFH
DREAM FINDERS HOMES INCConsumer Cyclical$1.45B
0.69%
20SBH
SALLY BEAUTY HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.42B
0.67%
21OI
O-I GLASS INCConsumer Cyclical$1.40B
0.66%
22DCH
DAUCH CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.29B
0.61%
23CBRL
CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE INCConsumer Cyclical$1.20B
0.57%
24ARKO
ARKO CORPConsumer Cyclical$893M
0.42%
25WGO
WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$868M
0.41%
26HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$772M
0.37%
27HZO
MARINEMAX INCConsumer Cyclical$760M
0.36%
28BLMN
BLOOMIN' BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$731M
0.35%
29BALY
BALLY'S CORPConsumer Cyclical$688M
0.33%
30CWH
CAMPING WORLD HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$637M
0.30%
31CPS
COOPER-STANDARD HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$490M
0.23%
32BNED
BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION INCConsumer Cyclical$437M
0.21%
33GCO
GENESCO INCConsumer Cyclical$411M
0.20%
34CAL
CALERES INCConsumer Cyclical$398M
0.19%
35SHOE
SHOE CARNIVAL INCConsumer Cyclical$393M
0.19%
36BBBY
BED BATH & BEYOND INCConsumer Cyclical$372M
0.18%
37LE
LANDS' END INCConsumer Cyclical$357M
0.17%
38FNKO
FUNKO INCConsumer Cyclical$326M
0.15%
39ZUMZ
ZUMIEZ INCConsumer Cyclical$315M
0.15%
40DBI
DESIGNER BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$290M
0.14%
41JACK
JACK IN THE BOX INCConsumer Cyclical$286M
0.14%
42LOVE
LOVESAC COConsumer Cyclical$267M
0.13%
43MPAA
MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA INCConsumer Cyclical$265M
0.13%
44RDNW
RIDENOW GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$229M
0.11%
45ONEW
ONEWATER MARINE INCConsumer Cyclical$224M
0.11%
46SGC
SUPERIOR GROUP OF COMPANIES INCConsumer Cyclical$209M
0.10%
47SRI
STONERIDGE INCConsumer Cyclical$197M
0.09%
48LCUT
LIFETIME BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$195M
0.09%
49COOK
TRAEGER INCConsumer Cyclical$193M
0.09%
50LEE
LEE ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$175M
0.08%
51CHPT
CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$146M
0.07%
52RRGB
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INCConsumer Cyclical$130M
0.06%
53AKA
AKA BRANDS HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$119M
0.06%
54UFI
UNIFI INCConsumer Cyclical$118M
0.06%
55MED
MEDIFAST INCConsumer Cyclical$114M
0.05%
56KEQU
KEWAUNEE SCIENTIFIC CORPConsumer Cyclical$109M
0.05%
57VNCE
VINCE HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$83M
0.04%
58BARK
BARK INCConsumer Cyclical$82M
0.04%
59BDL
FLANIGANS ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$76M
0.04%
60RGS
REGIS CORPConsumer Cyclical$74M
0.04%
61NDLS
NOODLES & COConsumer Cyclical$66M
0.03%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $210.54B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Consumer Cyclical
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

61 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
37%4
40%3
·
10%9
2%1
4%3
2%16
2%9
1%3

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 310-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.9B, Small < $1.3B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.62, Growth < 0.38 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 86% toward Large, 27% toward Growth. +2% unclassified (13 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt86% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt27% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 61 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
3
Failed
3
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    50.5%
    Margin
    -24.5%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    32.6%
    Margin
    -7.6%
  • Days required to liquidate the largest position at 20% of one day's dollar volume.

    Required
    <= 7.0 days
    Actual
    27.3 days
    Margin
    -20.3 days
Reported separately — arithmetically implied
  • At least 50% of total assets must sit in cash, government securities, other RICs, and other securities limited to 5% of assets and 10% of the issuer's voting securities per issuer.

    Required
    >= 50.0%
    Actual
    50.5%
    Margin
    0.5%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

    Arithmetically entailed by '40 Act 5(b)(1) diversification (75%/5% asset leg) — it cannot fail independently, so it is reported outside the tally rather than counted as a separate check.

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

1 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 61 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.2 (95% CI 1.4-2.7)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
21.0%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.18x
over
parametric
1.99x
within
cornish fisher
2.43x
over

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.18 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.99 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1996
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1996 paper.
Sharpe 0.102.5% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
50%
13 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.90
Sharpe, January 2017 – December 2019
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
-0.03
Dispersion
0.59
Best window
0.99

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.37.8%28.0%
3 yearsp.a.14.2%-0.1%
5 yearsp.a.14.1%6.3%
10 yearsp.a.17.4%0.5%
Since inceptionp.a.9.0%-0.4%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo11.0%11.1%
202525.4%16.8%
20244.5%-22.2%
202336.5%-0.0%
2022-14.4%42.3%
202185.9%50.7%
202029.6%-24.4%
201920.8%-2.8%
2018-20.2%-29.2%
201714.6%-16.3%
201611.0%8.2%
2015-9.4%-23.9%
20143.9%3.6%
201342.0%2.9%
201223.7%6.2%
2011-29.6%-36.0%
201042.2%6.4%
2009136.4%81.1%
2008-63.2%-30.4%
2007-28.5%-33.3%
200621.9%8.5%
2005-13.8%-9.8%
20044.4%-18.9%
200354.8%18.5%
2002-23.2%2.9%
200119.4%14.4%
200019.4%69.5%
199911.0%-4.8%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FSPC
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2020-08-17 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$210.54B

Methodology

The Foundry Consumer Cyclical Sales-to-Price Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Consumer Cyclical common stocks each month by a Sales-to-Price signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.