ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
value factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Financial Services Sales-to-Price Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FSPFHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+99%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
109
cap-weighted
Inception
Dec 2020
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.25
Ann. Return (LS)
3.4%
Ann. Volatility
13.7%
Max Drawdown
-58.8%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.49
Test FF5 α (ann.)
7.0%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
2.02
significant (|t| ≥ 2)
Monthly turnover
7%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
99%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.53
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
11.8%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.25
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
8.4%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

109 of 109 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1PGR
PROGRESSIVE CORPFinancial Services$121.51B
11.85%
2TRV
TRAVELERS COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$76.96B
7.50%
3ALL
ALLSTATE CORPFinancial Services$64.33B
6.27%
4MET
METLIFE INCFinancial Services$60.48B
5.90%
5PYPL
PAYPAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$49.89B
4.86%
6AIG
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$42.68B
4.16%
7PRU
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$41.32B
4.03%
8HIG
HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$38.45B
3.75%
9ACGL
ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTDFinancial Services$35.41B
3.45%
10WRB
BERKLEY W R CORPFinancial Services$26.66B
2.60%
11LPLA
LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$25.99B
2.53%
12MKL
MARKEL GROUP INCFinancial Services$24.68B
2.41%
13PFG
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$24.61B
2.40%
14L
LOEWS CORPFinancial Services$23.55B
2.30%
15BEN
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INCFinancial Services$16.96B
1.65%
16RGA
REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCFinancial Services$15.84B
1.54%
17EG
EVEREST GROUP LTDFinancial Services$15.14B
1.48%
18CRBG
COREBRIDGE FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$14.56B
1.42%
19UNM
UNUM GROUPFinancial Services$14.23B
1.39%
20CNA
CNA FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$14.14B
1.38%
21ALLY
ALLY FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$13.99B
1.36%
22FNF
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$13.97B
1.36%
23EQH
EQUITABLE HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$13.79B
1.34%
24RNR
RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTDFinancial Services$13.77B
1.34%
25AIZ
ASSURANT INCFinancial Services$13.72B
1.34%
26JEF
JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$12.65B
1.23%
27AFG
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$11.79B
1.15%
28ORI
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$10.26B
1.00%
29VOYA
VOYA FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$9.04B
0.88%
30JXN
JACKSON FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$8.76B
0.85%
31AXS
AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LTDFinancial Services$8.46B
0.82%
32GLXY
GALAXY DIGITAL INCFinancial Services$8.43B
0.82%
33SNEX
STONEX GROUP INCFinancial Services$8.16B
0.80%
34LNC
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$8.08B
0.79%
35THG
HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$7.46B
0.73%
36FAF
FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$7.38B
0.72%
37MCY
MERCURY GENERAL CORPFinancial Services$5.88B
0.57%
38ENVA
ENOVA INTERNATIONAL INCFinancial Services$5.79B
0.56%
39SIGI
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$5.78B
0.56%
40WTM
WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP LTDFinancial Services$5.48B
0.53%
41BGC
BGC GROUP INCFinancial Services$5.41B
0.53%
42CNO
CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$5.00B
0.49%
43LAZ
LAZARD INCFinancial Services$4.82B
0.47%
44FG
F&G ANNUITIES & LIFE INCFinancial Services$4.25B
0.41%
45BFH
BREAD FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.01B
0.39%
46GNW
GENWORTH FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$3.86B
0.38%
47BHF
BRIGHTHOUSE FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$3.77B
0.37%
48HG
HAMILTON INSURANCE GROUP LTDFinancial Services$3.47B
0.34%
49SPNT
SIRIUSPOINT LTDFinancial Services$2.93B
0.29%
50WU
WESTERN UNION COFinancial Services$2.77B
0.27%
51SKWD
SKYWARD SPECIALTY INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$2.40B
0.23%
52SLDE
SLIDE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$2.35B
0.23%
53HTH
HILLTOP HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$2.26B
0.22%
54STC
STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORPFinancial Services$2.19B
0.21%
55HMN
HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORPFinancial Services$2.12B
0.21%
56EZPW
EZCORP INCFinancial Services$1.97B
0.19%
57ECPG
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.96B
0.19%
58WD
WALKER & DUNLOP INCFinancial Services$1.72B
0.17%
59KMPR
KEMPER CORPFinancial Services$1.65B
0.16%
60UFCS
UNITED FIRE GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.31B
0.13%
61DFIN
DONNELLEY FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS INCFinancial Services$1.25B
0.12%
62OPY
OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$1.17B
0.11%
63TRUP
TRUPANION INCFinancial Services$1.16B
0.11%
64VRTS
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS INCFinancial Services$1.10B
0.11%
65GOLD
GOLDCOM INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.11%
66SAFT
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.11%
67UVE
UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.11%
68JCAP
JEFFERSON CAPITAL INCFinancial Services$1.08B
0.11%
69BOW
BOWHEAD SPECIALTY HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$1.01B
0.10%
70ROOT
ROOT INCFinancial Services$944M
0.09%
71EIG
EMPLOYERS HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$918M
0.09%
72WRLD
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPFinancial Services$891M
0.09%
73HRTG
HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$821M
0.08%
74HIPO
HIPPO HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$764M
0.07%
75GDOT
GREEN DOT CORPFinancial Services$760M
0.07%
76DGICA
DONEGAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$693M
0.07%
77PRAA
PRA GROUP INCFinancial Services$691M
0.07%
78TREE
LENDINGTREE INCFinancial Services$645M
0.06%
79GLRE
GREENLIGHT CAPITAL RE LTDFinancial Services$566M
0.06%
80CRD.A
CRAWFORD & COFinancial Services$537M
0.05%
81ACIC
AMERICAN COASTAL INSURANCE CORPFinancial Services$497M
0.05%
82NEWT
NEWTEKONE INCFinancial Services$439M
0.04%
83GBLI
GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP LLCFinancial Services$400M
0.04%
84ABTC
AMERICAN BITCOIN CORPFinancial Services$386M
0.04%
85RM
REGIONAL MANAGEMENT CORPFinancial Services$384M
0.04%
86AII
AMERICAN INTEGRITY INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$366M
0.04%
87ONIT
ONITY GROUP INCFinancial Services$344M
0.03%
88NODK
NI HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$326M
0.03%
89CION
CION INVESTMENT CORPFinancial Services$304M
0.03%
90KINS
KINGSTONE COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$291M
0.03%
91OSG
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INCFinancial Services$275M
0.03%
92OPRT
OPORTUN FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$274M
0.03%
93CIA
CITIZENS INCFinancial Services$272M
0.03%
94SNFCA
SECURITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$255M
0.02%
95RILY
BRC GROUP HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$254M
0.02%
96RWAY
RUNWAY GROWTH FINANCE CORPFinancial Services$239M
0.02%
97FSBW
FS BANCORP INCFinancial Services$238M
0.02%
98MFIN
MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$237M
0.02%
99PMTS
CPI CARD GROUP INCFinancial Services$216M
0.02%
100FOA
FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$216M
0.02%
101CPSS
CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SERVICES INCFinancial Services$197M
0.02%
102FINW
FINWISE BANCORPFinancial Services$189M
0.02%
103GHI
GREYSTONE HOUSING IMPACT INVESTORS LPFinancial Services$123M
0.01%
104SAMG
SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP INCFinancial Services$118M
0.01%
105FNWB
FIRST NORTHWEST BANCORPFinancial Services$116M
0.01%
106BCIC
BCP INVESTMENT CORPFinancial Services$91M
0.01%
107GECC
GREAT ELM CAPITAL CORPFinancial Services$74M
0.01%
108OPHC
OPTIMUMBANK HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$74M
0.01%
109KG
KESTREL GROUP LTDFinancial Services$72M
0.01%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $1.03T. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Financial Services
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

109 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
18%11
47%14
27%17
3%14
1%7
2%11
1%24
<1%5
<1%4

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 554-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $4.3B, Small < $753M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.61, Growth < 0.39 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 96% toward Large, 54% toward Growth. +1% unclassified (2 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt96% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt54% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 109 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
6
Failed
0
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 109 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.8 (95% CI 1.2-2.4)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
17.7%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.83x
within
parametric
1.41x
within
cornish fisher
1.67x
within

The estimators differ materially in value but agree on the verdict. Historical and Gaussian fund VaR differ by 30%; both still land on the same side of the 2x limit.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1996
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1996 paper.
Sharpe 0.253.4% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
62%
16 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.12
Sharpe, January 2017 – December 2019
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.23
Dispersion
0.61
Best window
1.18

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.18.4%26.2%
3 yearsp.a.24.2%10.4%
5 yearsp.a.16.7%11.3%
10 yearsp.a.17.0%1.8%
Since inceptionp.a.9.7%2.5%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo9.3%14.8%
202517.5%7.4%
202430.1%4.3%
202321.9%0.5%
2022-0.7%20.6%
202133.2%16.1%
20208.6%-13.9%
201933.2%-3.9%
2018-12.3%-16.8%
201719.7%-10.0%
201622.7%11.8%
20150.4%-6.5%
20149.3%0.3%
201343.1%-3.6%
201237.0%7.2%
2011-26.3%-28.3%
201022.2%23.4%
200929.4%13.6%
2008-58.9%-14.7%
2007-6.2%-6.4%
200615.3%3.6%
200512.6%7.8%
200412.8%-3.1%
200340.0%9.9%
2002-2.5%9.3%
2001-18.3%1.7%
200056.9%43.5%
19992.3%7.6%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FSPF
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2020-12-03 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$1.03T

Methodology

The Foundry Financial Services Sales-to-Price Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Financial Services common stocks each month by a Sales-to-Price signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.