ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
reversal factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Financial Services Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FSTFHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+158%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
111
cap-weighted
Inception
Jul 2019
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.28
Ann. Return (LS)
5.0%
Ann. Volatility
17.8%
Max Drawdown
-53.0%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.33
Test FF5 α (ann.)
2.5%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.35
not significant
Monthly turnover
79%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
158%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.51
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
12.6%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.28
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
7.6%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

111 of 111 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1BRK.B
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCFinancial Services$1.06T
61.09%
2C
CITIGROUP INCFinancial Services$220.63B
12.72%
3PGR
PROGRESSIVE CORPFinancial Services$121.51B
7.01%
4RKT
ROCKET COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$41.14B
2.37%
5CINF
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$27.97B
1.61%
6SYF
SYNCHRONY FINANCIALFinancial Services$24.81B
1.43%
7SOFI
SOFI TECHNOLOGIES INCFinancial Services$22.17B
1.28%
8BEN
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INCFinancial Services$16.96B
0.98%
9CRCL
CIRCLE INTERNET GROUP INCFinancial Services$15.03B
0.87%
10ERIE
ERIE INDEMNITY COFinancial Services$10.50B
0.61%
11HUT
HUT 8 CORPFinancial Services$10.30B
0.59%
12FCFS
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$9.36B
0.54%
13WULF
TERAWULF INCFinancial Services$9.00B
0.52%
14VIRT
VIRTU FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$8.64B
0.50%
15GLXY
GALAXY DIGITAL INCFinancial Services$8.43B
0.49%
16SNEX
STONEX GROUP INCFinancial Services$8.16B
0.47%
17APLD
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPFinancial Services$7.37B
0.42%
18CIFR
CIPHER DIGITAL INCFinancial Services$7.18B
0.41%
19OMF
ONEMAIN HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$6.97B
0.40%
20RIOT
RIOT PLATFORMS INCFinancial Services$6.91B
0.40%
21FIGR
FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INCFinancial Services$6.39B
0.37%
22ENVA
ENOVA INTERNATIONAL INCFinancial Services$5.79B
0.33%
23SLM
SLM CORPFinancial Services$4.78B
0.28%
24PFSI
PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES INCFinancial Services$4.43B
0.26%
25NP
NEPTUNE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.29B
0.25%
26MARA
MARA HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.08B
0.23%
27BFH
BREAD FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$4.01B
0.23%
28CLSK
CLEANSPARK INCFinancial Services$3.34B
0.19%
29CRVL
CORVEL CORPFinancial Services$3.13B
0.18%
30UPST
UPSTART HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$2.82B
0.16%
31CUBI
CUSTOMERS BANCORP INCFinancial Services$2.65B
0.15%
32HAPN
HAPPEN INCFinancial Services$2.22B
0.13%
33EZPW
EZCORP INCFinancial Services$1.97B
0.11%
34ECPG
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.96B
0.11%
35WD
WALKER & DUNLOP INCFinancial Services$1.72B
0.10%
36BFC
BANK FIRST CORPFinancial Services$1.64B
0.09%
37FSUN
FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORPFinancial Services$1.56B
0.09%
38ATLC
ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPFinancial Services$1.52B
0.09%
39XZO
EXZEO GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.46B
0.08%
40UFCS
UNITED FIRE GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.31B
0.08%
41ASIC
ATEGRITY SPECIALTY INSURANCE CO HOLDINGSFinancial Services$1.09B
0.06%
42GOLD
GOLDCOM INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.06%
43SAFT
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.06%
44UVE
UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.06%
45SBSI
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$1.04B
0.06%
46GSBD
GOLDMAN SACHS BDC INCFinancial Services$994M
0.06%
47ABX
ABACUS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT INCFinancial Services$994M
0.06%
48PURR
HYPERLIQUID STRATEGIES INCFinancial Services$899M
0.05%
49WRLD
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPFinancial Services$891M
0.05%
50EGBN
EAGLE BANCORP INCFinancial Services$835M
0.05%
51HTB
HOMETRUST BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$824M
0.05%
52PGC
PEAPACK GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$817M
0.05%
53MFIC
MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPFinancial Services$806M
0.05%
54OPFI
OPPFI INCFinancial Services$801M
0.05%
55CARE
CARTER BANKSHARES INCFinancial Services$741M
0.04%
56PFLT
PENNANTPARK FLOATING RATE CAPITAL LTDFinancial Services$719M
0.04%
57LCLN
LINCOLN INTERNATIONAL INCFinancial Services$697M
0.04%
58PRAA
PRA GROUP INCFinancial Services$691M
0.04%
59VEL
VELOCITY FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$687M
0.04%
60NPB
NORTHPOINTE BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$650M
0.04%
61UNTY
UNITY BANCORP INCFinancial Services$575M
0.03%
62GCBC
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INCFinancial Services$559M
0.03%
63CRD.A
CRAWFORD & COFinancial Services$537M
0.03%
64ACIC
AMERICAN COASTAL INSURANCE CORPFinancial Services$497M
0.03%
65RBB
RBB BANCORPFinancial Services$458M
0.03%
66BETR
BETTER HOME & FINANCE HOLDING COFinancial Services$442M
0.03%
67AVBC
AVIDIA BANCORP INCFinancial Services$408M
0.02%
68FRST
PRIMIS FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$400M
0.02%
69FCBM
FIRST CAROLINA FINANCIAL SERVICES INCFinancial Services$389M
0.02%
70ABTC
AMERICAN BITCOIN CORPFinancial Services$386M
0.02%
71NECB
NORTHEAST COMMUNITY BANCORP INCFinancial Services$366M
0.02%
72AII
AMERICAN INTEGRITY INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$366M
0.02%
73WSBF
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$356M
0.02%
74AVBH
AVIDBANK HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$353M
0.02%
75TSBK
TIMBERLAND BANCORP INCFinancial Services$343M
0.02%
76NWFL
NORWOOD FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$341M
0.02%
77SAR
SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORPFinancial Services$320M
0.02%
78SSSS
SURO CAPITAL CORPFinancial Services$317M
0.02%
79PSBD
PALMER SQUARE CAPITAL BDC INCFinancial Services$306M
0.02%
80OSG
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INCFinancial Services$275M
0.02%
81CIA
CITIZENS INCFinancial Services$272M
0.02%
82FXNC
FIRST NATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$267M
0.02%
83NSLR
NEOSTELLAR CAPITAL CORPFinancial Services$266M
0.02%
84RILY
BRC GROUP HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$254M
0.01%
85MFIN
MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$237M
0.01%
86INBK
FIRST INTERNET BANCORPFinancial Services$233M
0.01%
87PEBK
PEOPLES BANCORP OF NORTH CAROLINA INCFinancial Services$232M
0.01%
88SCM
STELLUS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CORPFinancial Services$220M
0.01%
89PMTS
CPI CARD GROUP INCFinancial Services$216M
0.01%
90FOA
FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INCFinancial Services$216M
0.01%
91FCAP
FIRST CAPITAL INCFinancial Services$205M
0.01%
92CPSS
CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SERVICES INCFinancial Services$197M
0.01%
93RBKB
RHINEBECK BANCORP INCFinancial Services$190M
0.01%
94FINW
FINWISE BANCORPFinancial Services$189M
0.01%
95EBMT
EAGLE BANCORP MONTANA INCFinancial Services$185M
0.01%
96CBFV
CB FINANCIAL SERVICES INCFinancial Services$184M
0.01%
97BCBP
BCB BANCORP INCFinancial Services$179M
0.01%
98MNSB
MAINSTREET BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$172M
0.01%
99RMBI
RICHMOND MUTUAL BANCORPORATION INCFinancial Services$165M
0.01%
100FGBI
FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$164M
0.01%
101FNWD
FINWARD BANCORPFinancial Services$157M
0.01%
102WHF
WHITEHORSE FINANCE INCFinancial Services$140M
0.01%
103LSBK
LAKE SHORE BANCORP INCFinancial Services$135M
0.01%
104GHI
GREYSTONE HOUSING IMPACT INVESTORS LPFinancial Services$123M
0.01%
105SAMG
SILVERCREST ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP INCFinancial Services$118M
0.01%
106RVSB
RIVERVIEW BANCORP INCFinancial Services$107M
0.01%
107AUBN
AUBURN NATIONAL BANCORPORATION INCFinancial Services$93M
0.01%
108UBCP
UNITED BANCORP INCFinancial Services$89M
0.01%
109HNNA
HENNESSY ADVISORS INCFinancial Services$79M
0.00%
110GECC
GREAT ELM CAPITAL CORPFinancial Services$74M
0.00%
111TCBS
TEXAS COMMUNITY BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$50M
0.00%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $1.73T. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Financial Services
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

111 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
2%3
22%4
72%16
1%9
1%9
1%11
1%34
<1%14
<1%5

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 554-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $4.3B, Small < $753M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.61, Growth < 0.39 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 98% toward Large, 85% toward Growth. +1% unclassified (6 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt98% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt85% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 111 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    34.2%
    Margin
    -40.8%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    61.1%
    Margin
    -36.1%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied
  • At least 50% of total assets must sit in cash, government securities, other RICs, and other securities limited to 5% of assets and 10% of the issuer's voting securities per issuer.

    Required
    >= 50.0%
    Actual
    34.2%
    Margin
    -15.8%

    Arithmetically entailed by '40 Act 5(b)(1) diversification (75%/5% asset leg) — it cannot fail independently, so it is reported outside the tally rather than counted as a separate check.

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 111 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.4 (95% CI 1.5-2.5)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
23.0%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.39x
over
parametric
1.57x
within
cornish fisher
1.83x
within

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.39 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.57 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1990
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1990 paper.
Sharpe 0.285.0% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
73%
19 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.70
Sharpe, January 2007 – December 2009
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.42
Dispersion
0.53
Best window
1.58

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.15.3%10.6%
3 yearsp.a.23.0%1.5%
5 yearsp.a.14.2%3.8%
10 yearsp.a.16.1%2.4%
Since inceptionp.a.9.9%3.5%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo6.5%2.6%
20256.3%-21.5%
202450.3%28.0%
202339.3%19.2%
2022-20.9%-7.9%
202124.5%7.1%
20202.2%-14.8%
201950.3%36.2%
2018-14.1%-9.8%
201722.7%10.6%
201618.6%-10.2%
20153.3%15.9%
201413.9%12.9%
201349.3%4.4%
201231.4%7.8%
2011-20.4%-14.6%
201028.3%19.4%
200911.4%-13.7%
2008-55.9%-8.2%
2007-27.9%-27.2%
200623.2%9.9%
20054.5%-4.4%
200415.3%9.0%
200339.1%6.5%
2002-0.0%27.2%
2001-1.9%6.1%
200045.0%27.4%
199922.6%12.8%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FSTF
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2019-07-11 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$1.73T

Methodology

The Foundry Financial Services Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Financial Services common stocks each month by a Short-Term Reversal signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.