ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
reversal factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Healthcare Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FSTHHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−12%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
100
cap-weighted
Inception
Aug 2021
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.13
Ann. Return (LS)
3.7%
Ann. Volatility
28.4%
Max Drawdown
-72.6%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
-0.24
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-9.8%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-1.12
not significant
Monthly turnover
79%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-12%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.42
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
11.6%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.13
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
7.8%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

100 of 100 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1ISRG
INTUITIVE SURGICAL INCHealthcare$122.33B
36.92%
2ALNY
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$35.71B
10.78%
3MRNA
MODERNA INCHealthcare$24.53B
7.40%
4ARWR
ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$10.47B
3.16%
5TEM
TEMPUS AI INCHealthcare$9.42B
2.84%
6IONS
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$8.99B
2.71%
7IBRX
IMMUNITYBIO INCHealthcare$8.04B
2.43%
8TWST
TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORPHealthcare$5.84B
1.76%
9MANE
VERADERMICS INCHealthcare$4.65B
1.40%
10CRSP
CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AGHealthcare$4.61B
1.39%
11CELC
CELCUITY INCHealthcare$4.31B
1.30%
12ALHC
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE INCHealthcare$4.26B
1.29%
13TNGX
TANGO THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$4.13B
1.25%
14DNLI
DENALI THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$3.70B
1.12%
15GPCR
STRUCTURE THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$3.45B
1.04%
16RCUS
ARCUS BIOSCIENCES INCHealthcare$3.44B
1.04%
17WRBY
WARBY PARKER INCHealthcare$3.24B
0.98%
18RARE
ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INCHealthcare$2.88B
0.87%
19BEAM
BEAM THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$2.83B
0.85%
20VERA
VERA THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$2.76B
0.83%
21QURE
UNIQURE NVHealthcare$2.54B
0.77%
22SLS
SELLAS LIFE SCIENCES GROUP INCHealthcare$2.45B
0.74%
23KLRA
KAILERA THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$2.40B
0.73%
24HTFL
HEARTFLOW INCHealthcare$2.15B
0.65%
25AXGN
AXOGEN INCHealthcare$2.12B
0.64%
26ABCL
ABCELLERA BIOLOGICS INCHealthcare$1.97B
0.60%
27OCUL
OCULAR THERAPEUTIX INCHealthcare$1.96B
0.59%
28UFPT
UFP TECHNOLOGIES INCHealthcare$1.87B
0.57%
29STOK
STOKE THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$1.81B
0.55%
30GENB
GENERATE BIOMEDICINES INCHealthcare$1.74B
0.52%
31BFLY
BUTTERFLY NETWORK INCHealthcare$1.73B
0.52%
32TSHA
TAYSHA GENE THERAPIES INCHealthcare$1.71B
0.52%
33ANAB
ANAPTYSBIO INCHealthcare$1.69B
0.51%
34CMPS
COMPASS PATHWAYS PLCHealthcare$1.67B
0.50%
35NTLA
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$1.59B
0.48%
36NVAX
NOVAVAX INCHealthcare$1.35B
0.41%
37AKTS
AKTIS ONCOLOGY INCHealthcare$1.33B
0.40%
38STAA
STAAR SURGICAL COHealthcare$1.32B
0.40%
39ABSI
ABSCI CORPHealthcare$1.29B
0.39%
40INBX
INHIBRX BIOSCIENCES INCHealthcare$1.28B
0.39%
41AVLN
AVALYN PHARMA INCHealthcare$1.25B
0.38%
42MGTX
MEIRAGTX HOLDINGS PLCHealthcare$1.15B
0.35%
43SVRA
SAVARA INCHealthcare$1.13B
0.34%
44CAPR
CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$1.13B
0.34%
45PRCT
PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORPHealthcare$1.09B
0.33%
46OLMA
OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$1.00B
0.30%
47REPL
REPLIMUNE GROUP INCHealthcare$859M
0.26%
48SLDB
SOLID BIOSCIENCES INCHealthcare$859M
0.26%
49AVR
ANTERIS TECHNOLOGIES GLOBAL CORPHealthcare$823M
0.25%
50DSGN
DESIGN THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$785M
0.24%
51ZVRA
ZEVRA THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$755M
0.23%
52GMRS
GMR SOLUTIONS INCHealthcare$721M
0.22%
53SPRY
ARS PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$695M
0.21%
54SGP
SPYGLASS PHARMA INCHealthcare$661M
0.20%
55GYRE
GYRE THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$587M
0.18%
56FDMT
4D MOLECULAR THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$575M
0.17%
57RLMD
RELMADA THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$550M
0.17%
58CTNM
CONTINEUM THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$532M
0.16%
59EIKN
EIKON THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$529M
0.16%
60CTEV
CLARITEV CORPHealthcare$518M
0.16%
61ZURA
ZURA BIO LTDHealthcare$518M
0.16%
62DNA
GINKGO BIOWORKS HOLDINGS INCHealthcare$517M
0.16%
63RGNX
REGENXBIO INCHealthcare$511M
0.15%
64CLPT
CLEARPOINT NEURO INCHealthcare$454M
0.14%
65PRTA
PROTHENA CORP PUBLIC LTD COHealthcare$453M
0.14%
66KYTX
KYVERNA THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$453M
0.14%
67EVMN
EVOMMUNE INCHealthcare$437M
0.13%
68CBIO
CRESCENT BIOPHARMA INCHealthcare$407M
0.12%
69MOBI
MOBIA MEDICAL INCHealthcare$404M
0.12%
70EBS
EMERGENT BIOSOLUTIONS INCHealthcare$394M
0.12%
71STRO
SUTRO BIOPHARMA INCHealthcare$391M
0.12%
72EOLS
EVOLUS INCHealthcare$377M
0.11%
73CV
CAPSOVISION INCHealthcare$335M
0.10%
74VNDA
VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$327M
0.10%
75MASS
908 DEVICES INCHealthcare$278M
0.08%
76CNXU
CONEXEU SCIENCES INCHealthcare$263M
0.08%
77ZSQR
Z SQUARED INCHealthcare$260M
0.08%
78SRZN
SURROZEN INCHealthcare$255M
0.08%
79RNAC
CARTESIAN THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$243M
0.07%
80GLSI
GREENWICH LIFESCIENCES INCHealthcare$240M
0.07%
81SENS
SENSEONICS HOLDINGS INCHealthcare$214M
0.06%
82RNA
ATRIUM THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$208M
0.06%
83BDSX
BIODESIX INCHealthcare$204M
0.06%
84ARCT
ARCTURUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INCHealthcare$172M
0.05%
85LENZ
LENZ THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$162M
0.05%
86VTVT
VTV THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$130M
0.04%
87SPRB
SPRUCE BIOSCIENCES INCHealthcare$120M
0.04%
88VRCA
VERRICA PHARMACEUTICALS INCHealthcare$96M
0.03%
89PARK
PARK DENTAL PARTNERS INCHealthcare$88M
0.03%
90NRXS
NEURAXIS INCHealthcare$84M
0.03%
91ATRA
ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$76M
0.02%
92NMAD
NOMAD POWER SOLUTIONS INCHealthcare$72M
0.02%
93AGPU
AXE COMPUTE INCHealthcare$72M
0.02%
94LONA
LEONABIO INCHealthcare$68M
0.02%
95IMA
IMAGENEBIO INCHealthcare$61M
0.02%
96EDSA
EDESA BIOTECH INCHealthcare$59M
0.02%
97SNWV
SANUWAVE HEALTH INCHealthcare$55M
0.02%
98INKT
MINK THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$53M
0.02%
99MCRB
SERES THERAPEUTICS INCHealthcare$52M
0.02%
100EXOZ
EXOZYMES INCHealthcare$51M
0.02%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $331.39B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Healthcare
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

100 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
9%2
1%1
61%9
4%7
5%9
6%10
3%22
1%10
1%9

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 499-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $3.6B, Small < $964M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.67, Growth < 0.37 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 86% toward Large, 79% toward Growth. +10% unclassified (21 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt86% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt79% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 100 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    59.9%
    Margin
    -15.1%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    36.9%
    Margin
    -11.9%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 100 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.3)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
18.2%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.89x
within
parametric
1.77x
within
cornish fisher
1.94x
within

The estimators agree, which is mild evidence the number isn’t an artefact of one method.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1990
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1990 paper.
Sharpe 0.133.7% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
73%
19 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.05
Sharpe, January 2022 – December 2024
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.23
Dispersion
0.51
Best window
1.01

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.17.8%-22.2%
3 yearsp.a.-9.5%-13.7%
5 yearsp.a.-17.0%-20.7%
10 yearsp.a.2.8%-5.2%
Since inceptionp.a.8.2%-0.5%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo-4.7%-16.5%
20250.2%-13.8%
2024-10.4%12.5%
2023-3.2%-27.2%
2022-48.0%-47.8%
202120.7%37.0%
202045.3%5.4%
201925.1%12.2%
20184.9%5.0%
201735.1%-3.7%
2016-20.2%1.1%
2015-12.3%-15.5%
201446.7%22.1%
201349.7%5.5%
201232.6%21.2%
2011-0.5%0.5%
20109.1%-2.5%
200955.8%41.4%
2008-23.7%12.0%
20073.7%-12.1%
200613.4%6.4%
20050.5%-9.8%
20048.8%10.0%
200348.1%4.5%
2002-29.6%14.5%
200122.5%44.5%
200078.1%-19.0%
1999-15.0%-35.4%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FSTH
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2021-08-24 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$331.39B

Methodology

The Foundry Healthcare Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Healthcare common stocks each month by a Short-Term Reversal signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.