ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
reversal factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Industrials Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FSTIHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−4%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
139
cap-weighted
Inception
Mar 2019
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.09
Ann. Return (LS)
1.8%
Ann. Volatility
19.1%
Max Drawdown
-59.5%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
-0.36
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-10.7%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-1.66
not significant
Monthly turnover
78%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-4%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.34
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
8.6%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.09
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
6.8%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

139 of 139 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1SPCX
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORPIndustrials$1.63T
46.03%
2CAT
CATERPILLAR INCIndustrials$405.49B
11.44%
3VRT
VERTIV HOLDINGS COIndustrials$111.22B
3.14%
4PWR
QUANTA SERVICES INCIndustrials$94.32B
2.66%
5CMI
CUMMINS INCIndustrials$89.48B
2.52%
6RCL
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTDIndustrials$76.96B
2.17%
7TDG
TRANSDIGM GROUP INCIndustrials$67.93B
1.92%
8URI
UNITED RENTALS INCIndustrials$65.48B
1.85%
9BE
BLOOM ENERGY CORPIndustrials$61.14B
1.72%
10FIX
COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INCIndustrials$58.93B
1.66%
11DAL
DELTA AIR LINES INCIndustrials$55.35B
1.56%
12AXON
AXON ENTERPRISE INCIndustrials$41.13B
1.16%
13RKLB
ROCKET LAB CORPIndustrials$39.14B
1.10%
14UAL
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$37.46B
1.06%
15EME
EMCOR GROUP INCIndustrials$33.07B
0.93%
16CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPIndustrials$27.71B
0.78%
17ECHO
ECHO GLOBAL LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$26.66B
0.75%
18MTZ
MASTEC INCIndustrials$26.04B
0.73%
19NVT
NVENT ELECTRIC PLCIndustrials$25.05B
0.71%
20SYM
SYMBOTIC INCIndustrials$24.86B
0.70%
21WWD
WOODWARD INCIndustrials$23.41B
0.66%
22FTAI
FTAI AVIATION LTDIndustrials$21.28B
0.60%
23STRL
STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE INCIndustrials$19.59B
0.55%
24RBC
RBC BEARINGS INCIndustrials$18.20B
0.51%
25ULS
UL SOLUTIONS INCIndustrials$17.69B
0.50%
26ARXS
ARXIS INCIndustrials$17.16B
0.48%
27BWXT
BWX TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$15.68B
0.44%
28WSO
WATSCO INCIndustrials$15.12B
0.43%
29RRX
REGAL REXNORD CORPIndustrials$13.77B
0.39%
30GNRC
GENERAC HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$12.65B
0.36%
31DY
DYCOM INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$12.23B
0.34%
32IESC
IES HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$12.21B
0.34%
33FPS
FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INCIndustrials$12.11B
0.34%
34WTS
WATTS WATER TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$11.57B
0.33%
35AEIS
ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$10.80B
0.30%
36SPXC
SPX TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$10.60B
0.30%
37VMI
VALMONT INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$10.32B
0.29%
38PNR
PENTAIR PLCIndustrials$10.09B
0.28%
39AYI
ACUITY INC (DE)Industrials$9.99B
0.28%
40AAL
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INCIndustrials$9.91B
0.28%
41NCLH
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTDIndustrials$8.93B
0.25%
42SARO
STANDARDAERO INCIndustrials$8.89B
0.25%
43FLS
FLOWSERVE CORPIndustrials$8.75B
0.25%
44KTOS
KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS INCIndustrials$8.63B
0.24%
45POWL
POWELL INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$8.48B
0.24%
46PL
PLANET LABS PBCIndustrials$8.01B
0.23%
47AGX
ARGAN INCIndustrials$7.73B
0.22%
48TEX
TEREX CORPIndustrials$7.47B
0.21%
49LGN
LEGENCE CORPIndustrials$7.37B
0.21%
50AVAV
AEROVIRONMENT INCIndustrials$7.20B
0.20%
51ENS
ENERSYSIndustrials$7.18B
0.20%
52FSS
FEDERAL SIGNAL CORPIndustrials$7.11B
0.20%
53JOBY
JOBY AVIATION INCIndustrials$7.11B
0.20%
54NPO
ENPRO INCIndustrials$6.82B
0.19%
55LOAR
LOAR HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$6.55B
0.18%
56MYRG
MYR GROUP INCIndustrials$6.10B
0.17%
57ROAD
CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS INCIndustrials$5.91B
0.17%
58MRCY
MERCURY SYSTEMS INCIndustrials$5.77B
0.16%
59VSEC
VSE CORPIndustrials$5.60B
0.16%
60ESAB
ESAB CORPIndustrials$5.47B
0.15%
61GVA
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCIndustrials$5.43B
0.15%
62ALK
ALASKA AIR GROUP INCIndustrials$5.07B
0.14%
63PRIM
PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPIndustrials$4.66B
0.13%
64SITE
SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY INCIndustrials$4.60B
0.13%
65GPGI
GPGI INCIndustrials$4.21B
0.12%
66EQPT
EQUIPMENTSHARECOM INCIndustrials$4.19B
0.12%
67MIR
MIRION TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$4.00B
0.11%
68SXI
STANDEX INTERNATIONAL CORPIndustrials$3.67B
0.10%
69HAYW
HAYWARD HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$3.12B
0.09%
70FLY
FIREFLY AEROSPACE INCIndustrials$3.09B
0.09%
71CDNL
CARDINAL INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP INCIndustrials$3.05B
0.09%
72LUNR
INTUITIVE MACHINES INCIndustrials$2.93B
0.08%
73AADX
APPLIED AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INCIndustrials$2.90B
0.08%
74CECO
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL CORPIndustrials$2.87B
0.08%
75SMR
NUSCALE POWER CORPIndustrials$2.82B
0.08%
76HLIO
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$2.68B
0.08%
77DCO
DUCOMMUN INCIndustrials$2.54B
0.07%
78ATRO
ASTRONICS CORPIndustrials$2.41B
0.07%
79CTOS
CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE INCIndustrials$2.35B
0.07%
80YSS
YORK SPACE SYSTEMS INCIndustrials$2.33B
0.07%
81GRC
GORMAN RUPP COIndustrials$2.11B
0.06%
82ALGT
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COIndustrials$1.86B
0.05%
83RDW
REDWIRE CORPIndustrials$1.68B
0.05%
84AVEX
AEVEX CORPIndustrials$1.65B
0.05%
85TH
TARGET HOSPITALITY CORPIndustrials$1.64B
0.05%
86TE
T1 ENERGY INCIndustrials$1.63B
0.05%
87PLPC
PREFORMED LINE PRODUCTS COIndustrials$1.60B
0.05%
88AMSC
AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPIndustrials$1.58B
0.04%
89VOYG
VOYAGER TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$1.53B
0.04%
90TIC
TIC SOLUTIONS INCIndustrials$1.51B
0.04%
91AMPX
AMPRIUS TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$1.44B
0.04%
92ULCC
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.43B
0.04%
93WLFC
WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORPIndustrials$1.35B
0.04%
94BW
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISES INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.04%
95FBYD
FALCON'S BEYOND GLOBAL INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.04%
96NWPX
NWPX INFRASTRUCTURE INCIndustrials$1.33B
0.04%
97ASTE
ASTEC INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$1.27B
0.04%
98GHM
GRAHAM CORPIndustrials$1.26B
0.04%
99FCEL
FUELCELL ENERGY INCIndustrials$1.25B
0.04%
100AMRC
AMERESCO INCIndustrials$1.22B
0.03%
101RHLD
RESOLUTE HOLDINGS MANAGEMENT INCIndustrials$1.10B
0.03%
102WLDN
WILLDAN GROUP INCIndustrials$1.10B
0.03%
103PCT
PURECYCLE TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$1.09B
0.03%
104NNE
NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY INCIndustrials$835M
0.02%
105UMAC
UNUSUAL MACHINES INCIndustrials$809M
0.02%
106CCXI
CHURCHILL CAPITAL CORP XIIndustrials$806M
0.02%
107RJET
REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$806M
0.02%
108KODK
EASTMAN KODAK COIndustrials$748M
0.02%
109PSIX
POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL INCIndustrials$697M
0.02%
110PKE
PARK AEROSPACE CORPIndustrials$677M
0.02%
111MEC
MAYVILLE ENGINEERING COMPANY INCIndustrials$634M
0.02%
112FAC
FACTORIAL ENERGY INCIndustrials$610M
0.02%
113BBCP
CONCRETE PUMPING HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$531M
0.01%
114ORN
ORION GROUP HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$518M
0.01%
115MG
MISTRAS GROUP INCIndustrials$500M
0.01%
116AIAI
AIAI HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$492M
0.01%
117SPIR
SPIRE GLOBAL INCIndustrials$488M
0.01%
118TITN
TITAN MACHINERY INCIndustrials$446M
0.01%
119BWMN
BOWMAN CONSULTING GROUP LTDIndustrials$443M
0.01%
120LXFR
LUXFER HOLDINGS PLCIndustrials$442M
0.01%
121SERV
SERVE ROBOTICS INCIndustrials$394M
0.01%
122CEPT
CANTOR EQUITY PARTNERS II INCIndustrials$376M
0.01%
123MTRX
MATRIX SERVICE COIndustrials$342M
0.01%
124ESOA
ENERGY SERVICES OF AMERICA CORPIndustrials$299M
0.01%
125LTBR
LIGHTBRIDGE CORPIndustrials$256M
0.01%
126FC
FRANKLIN COVEY COIndustrials$229M
0.01%
127UP
WHEELS UP EXPERIENCE INCIndustrials$229M
0.01%
128AIRO
AIRO GROUP HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$205M
0.01%
129ESP
ESPEY MFG & ELECTRONICS CORPIndustrials$172M
0.00%
130AP
AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORPIndustrials$156M
0.00%
131EML
EASTERN COIndustrials$154M
0.00%
132RAIL
FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INCIndustrials$144M
0.00%
133RFIL
R F INDUSTRIES LTDIndustrials$143M
0.00%
134VATE
INNOVATE CORPIndustrials$123M
0.00%
135ULBI
ULTRALIFE CORPIndustrials$92M
0.00%
136OPXS
OPTEX SYSTEMS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$89M
0.00%
137FGMC
FG MERGER II CORPIndustrials$86M
0.00%
138APAC
STONEBRIDGE ACQUISITION II CORPIndustrials$83M
0.00%
139LNZA
LANZATECH GLOBAL INCIndustrials$56M
0.00%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $3.54T. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Industrials
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

139 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
6%11
13%27
31%29
1%18
<1%12
<1%8
<1%9
·
<1%4

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 706-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $2.8B, Small < $315M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.60, Growth < 0.34 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 99% toward Large, 74% toward Growth. +48% unclassified (20 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt99% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt74% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 139 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    52.5%
    Margin
    -22.5%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    46.0%
    Margin
    -21.0%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 139 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
2.1 (95% CI 1.5-2.4)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
20.6%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
2.14x
over
parametric
1.62x
within
cornish fisher
2.10x
over

The estimators disagree about the verdict, not just the value — the choice of method decides the answer here. Historical VaR gives ratio 2.14 (fail) but Gaussian VaR gives 1.62 (pass). The pass/fail conclusion is an artefact of estimator choice, not a property of the strategy.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1990
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1990 paper.
Sharpe 0.091.8% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
54%
14 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.03
Sharpe, January 2023 – December 2025
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.15
Dispersion
0.57
Best window
1.32

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.20.7%-0.3%
3 yearsp.a.8.8%-14.2%
5 yearsp.a.4.8%-8.0%
10 yearsp.a.4.4%-7.7%
Since inceptionp.a.5.5%-0.1%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo14.5%1.0%
20252.9%-24.9%
20245.7%-17.3%
202321.3%-5.1%
2022-19.9%5.1%
20213.0%-11.5%
2020-11.9%-10.4%
201947.3%9.9%
2018-19.0%-7.3%
20173.4%-12.2%
201631.1%17.4%
20156.0%27.9%
20147.5%0.6%
201342.6%-2.7%
201230.5%23.4%
2011-7.1%-7.6%
201039.6%25.5%
200942.6%32.1%
2008-52.9%-4.2%
20074.8%-11.1%
200625.6%1.2%
20053.8%-6.8%
200435.8%20.0%
200324.7%-15.9%
2002-20.0%18.6%
2001-3.1%13.3%
2000-28.6%-10.7%
19993.6%-20.0%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FSTI
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2019-03-07 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$3.54T

Methodology

The Foundry Industrials Short-Term Reversal Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Industrials common stocks each month by a Short-Term Reversal signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.