ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
low risk factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Financial Services StdTurn Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FSTFHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+21%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
110
cap-weighted
Inception
Apr 2022
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.12
Ann. Return (LS)
1.9%
Ann. Volatility
15.5%
Max Drawdown
-48.0%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
-0.22
Test FF5 α (ann.)
-1.0%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
-0.23
not significant
Monthly turnover
11%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
21%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.48
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
8.2%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.12
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
6.3%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

110 of 110 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1BRK.B
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCFinancial Services$1.06T
33.91%
2JPM
JPMORGAN CHASE & COFinancial Services$913.98B
29.25%
3MA
MASTERCARD INCFinancial Services$480.32B
15.37%
4MS
MORGAN STANLEYFinancial Services$339.90B
10.88%
5PNC
PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP INCFinancial Services$101.54B
3.25%
6USB
US BANCORPFinancial Services$98.01B
3.14%
7CNA
CNA FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$14.14B
0.45%
8FRHC
FREEDOM HOLDING CORPFinancial Services$9.36B
0.30%
9CBC
CENTRAL BANCOMPANY INCFinancial Services$7.60B
0.24%
10ACT
ENACT HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$6.49B
0.21%
11MCY
MERCURY GENERAL CORPFinancial Services$5.88B
0.19%
12BGC
BGC GROUP INCFinancial Services$5.41B
0.17%
13TFSL
TFS FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$5.13B
0.16%
14NNI
NELNET INCFinancial Services$4.83B
0.15%
15CATY
CATHAY GENERAL BANCORPFinancial Services$4.20B
0.13%
16HGTY
HAGERTY INCFinancial Services$4.13B
0.13%
17BANF
BANCFIRST CORPFinancial Services$3.90B
0.12%
18CBU
COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM INCFinancial Services$3.62B
0.12%
19AB
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN HOLDING LPFinancial Services$3.54B
0.11%
20HG
HAMILTON INSURANCE GROUP LTDFinancial Services$3.47B
0.11%
21PRK
PARK NATIONAL CORPFinancial Services$3.43B
0.11%
22CRVL
CORVEL CORPFinancial Services$3.13B
0.10%
23GCMG
GCM GROSVENOR INCFinancial Services$2.61B
0.08%
24GABC
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP INCFinancial Services$1.82B
0.06%
25QCRH
QCR HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$1.63B
0.05%
26XZO
EXZEO GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.46B
0.05%
27TMP
TOMPKINS FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$1.35B
0.04%
28UFCS
UNITED FIRE GROUP INCFinancial Services$1.31B
0.04%
29HBT
HBT FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$1.19B
0.04%
30LIFE
ETHOS TECHNOLOGIES INCFinancial Services$1.17B
0.04%
31ASIC
ATEGRITY SPECIALTY INSURANCE CO HOLDINGSFinancial Services$1.09B
0.04%
32CFFN
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$1.09B
0.03%
33FSBC
FIVE STAR BANCORPFinancial Services$1.04B
0.03%
34MCBS
METROCITY BANKSHARES INCFinancial Services$1.04B
0.03%
35EQBK
EQUITY BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$1.04B
0.03%
36SBSI
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$1.04B
0.03%
37ABX
ABACUS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT INCFinancial Services$994M
0.03%
38TRST
TRUSTCO BANK CORP N YFinancial Services$960M
0.03%
39RPC
RIDGEPOST CAPITAL INCFinancial Services$959M
0.03%
40HTB
HOMETRUST BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$824M
0.03%
41SMBK
SMARTFINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$823M
0.03%
42SHBI
SHORE BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$776M
0.02%
43DGICA
DONEGAL GROUP INCFinancial Services$693M
0.02%
44PFIS
PEOPLES FINANCIAL SERVICES CORPFinancial Services$688M
0.02%
45GAIN
GLADSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATIONFinancial Services$659M
0.02%
46NPB
NORTHPOINTE BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$650M
0.02%
47BHB
BAR HARBOR BANKSHARESFinancial Services$639M
0.02%
48CIVB
CIVISTA BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$593M
0.02%
49GCBC
GREENE COUNTY BANCORP INCFinancial Services$559M
0.02%
50CRD.A
CRAWFORD & COFinancial Services$537M
0.02%
51OBT
ORANGE COUNTY BANCORP INCFinancial Services$504M
0.02%
52WTBA
WEST BANCORPORATION INCFinancial Services$460M
0.01%
53PBFS
PIONEER BANCORP INCFinancial Services$431M
0.01%
54PCB
PCB BANCORPFinancial Services$424M
0.01%
55FMAO
FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INCFinancial Services$421M
0.01%
56CZNC
CITIZENS & NORTHERN CORPFinancial Services$418M
0.01%
57GBLI
GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP LLCFinancial Services$400M
0.01%
58FNLC
FIRST BANCORP INCFinancial Services$389M
0.01%
59VALU
VALUE LINE INCFinancial Services$385M
0.01%
60RM
REGIONAL MANAGEMENT CORPFinancial Services$384M
0.01%
61MVBF
MVB FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$377M
0.01%
62AII
AMERICAN INTEGRITY INSURANCE GROUP INCFinancial Services$366M
0.01%
63WSBF
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$356M
0.01%
64CZFS
CITIZENS FINANCIAL SERVICES INCFinancial Services$354M
0.01%
65TSBK
TIMBERLAND BANCORP INCFinancial Services$343M
0.01%
66NWFL
NORWOOD FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$341M
0.01%
67NODK
NI HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$326M
0.01%
68JMSB
JOHN MARSHALL BANCORP INCFinancial Services$313M
0.01%
69FDBC
FIDELITY D & D BANCORP INCFinancial Services$305M
0.01%
70WNEB
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BANCORP INCFinancial Services$294M
0.01%
71FUNC
FIRST UNITED CORPFinancial Services$292M
0.01%
72CBNA
CHAIN BRIDGE BANCORP INCFinancial Services$275M
0.01%
73LCNB
LCNB CORPFinancial Services$273M
0.01%
74CIA
CITIZENS INCFinancial Services$272M
0.01%
75HWBK
HAWTHORN BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$270M
0.01%
76BPRN
PRINCETON BANCORP INCFinancial Services$263M
0.01%
77CFFI
C & F FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$260M
0.01%
78SNFCA
SECURITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$255M
0.01%
79FSBW
FS BANCORP INCFinancial Services$238M
0.01%
80MFIN
MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$237M
0.01%
81CMTV
COMMUNITY BANCORPFinancial Services$221M
0.01%
82PMTS
CPI CARD GROUP INCFinancial Services$216M
0.01%
83FCAP
FIRST CAPITAL INCFinancial Services$205M
0.01%
84CPSS
CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SERVICES INCFinancial Services$197M
0.01%
85RBKB
RHINEBECK BANCORP INCFinancial Services$190M
0.01%
86LARK
LANDMARK BANCORP INCFinancial Services$190M
0.01%
87WHG
WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INCFinancial Services$188M
0.01%
88BVFL
BV FINANCIAL INCFinancial Services$186M
0.01%
89CBFV
CB FINANCIAL SERVICES INCFinancial Services$184M
0.01%
90ECBK
ECB BANCORP INCFinancial Services$176M
0.01%
91LSBK
LAKE SHORE BANCORP INCFinancial Services$135M
0.00%
92WSBK
WINCHESTER BANCORP INCFinancial Services$121M
0.00%
93SFBC
SOUND FINANCIAL BANCORP INCFinancial Services$120M
0.00%
94UNB
UNION BANKSHARES INCFinancial Services$117M
0.00%
95BSBK
BOGOTA FINANCIAL CORPFinancial Services$116M
0.00%
96MGYR
MAGYAR BANCORP INCFinancial Services$113M
0.00%
97PROV
PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$108M
0.00%
98PBHC
PATHFINDER BANCORP INCFinancial Services$103M
0.00%
99FDSB
FIFTH DISTRICT BANCORP INCFinancial Services$94M
0.00%
100PFX
PHENIXFIN CORPFinancial Services$89M
0.00%
101UBCP
UNITED BANCORP INCFinancial Services$89M
0.00%
102IOR
INCOME OPPORTUNITY REALTY INVESTORS INCFinancial Services$84M
0.00%
103FSEA
FIRST SEACOAST BANCORP INCFinancial Services$79M
0.00%
104HNNA
HENNESSY ADVISORS INCFinancial Services$79M
0.00%
105OPHC
OPTIMUMBANK HOLDINGS INCFinancial Services$74M
0.00%
106NSTS
NSTS BANCORP INCFinancial Services$73M
0.00%
107KG
KESTREL GROUP LTDFinancial Services$72M
0.00%
108HFBL
HOME FEDERAL BANCORP INC OF LOUISIANAFinancial Services$70M
0.00%
109CLST
CATALYST BANCORP INCFinancial Services$70M
0.00%
110TCBS
TEXAS COMMUNITY BANCSHARES INCFinancial Services$50M
0.00%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $3.12T. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Financial Services
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

110 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
1%3
7%3
90%8
<1%5
<1%8
1%15
<1%38
<1%24
<1%6

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 554-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $4.3B, Small < $753M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.61, Growth < 0.39 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 99% toward Large, 95% toward Growth. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt99% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt95% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 110 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    30.6%
    Margin
    -44.4%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    33.9%
    Margin
    -8.9%
Reported separately — arithmetically implied
  • At least 50% of total assets must sit in cash, government securities, other RICs, and other securities limited to 5% of assets and 10% of the issuer's voting securities per issuer.

    Required
    >= 50.0%
    Actual
    30.6%
    Margin
    -19.4%

    Arithmetically entailed by '40 Act 5(b)(1) diversification (75%/5% asset leg) — it cannot fail independently, so it is reported outside the tally rather than counted as a separate check.

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

No verdict sits within 1.0pp of its limit.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 110 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.1 (95% CI 0.9-1.5)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
10.4%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.08x
within
parametric
1.09x
within
cornish fisher
1.19x
within

The estimators agree, which is mild evidence the number isn’t an artefact of one method.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 2001
Before publication (pre-2001)
0.16
Sharpe · 4.2% p.a.
January 1999December 2001 · 36 mo
Since publication
0.12
Sharpe · 1.6% p.a.
January 2002July 2026 · 295 mo
Change in Sharpe−0.04Sharpe weakened since publication61% of the prior annual return given up

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
62%
16 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.88
Sharpe, January 2019 – December 2021
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.05
Dispersion
0.52
Best window
1.38

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.16.0%13.6%
3 yearsp.a.21.5%-0.9%
5 yearsp.a.13.7%1.8%
10 yearsp.a.12.2%-2.1%
Since inceptionp.a.7.0%0.7%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo3.3%3.7%
202528.4%3.6%
202433.2%-2.1%
202322.6%-5.5%
2022-18.5%6.4%
202125.2%-1.3%
2020-11.0%-22.8%
201920.9%-8.8%
2018-1.6%18.1%
201717.8%-6.5%
201613.8%-0.2%
20150.6%-1.5%
201414.1%13.9%
201340.4%-7.7%
201218.9%-18.5%
2011-3.7%21.8%
201016.5%15.0%
20090.6%-26.9%
2008-34.9%58.7%
200710.0%25.4%
200622.3%4.8%
20055.0%-0.1%
20040.2%-16.7%
200327.5%-3.2%
2002-17.8%0.8%
2001-0.6%4.7%
200012.1%14.8%
1999-12.3%-14.7%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FSTF
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2022-04-27 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$3.12T

Methodology

The Foundry Financial Services StdTurn Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Financial Services common stocks each month by a StdTurn signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.