ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
accruals factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Industrials dNOA Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FDNIHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+70%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
99
cap-weighted
Inception
Mar 2020
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.21
Ann. Return (LS)
2.9%
Ann. Volatility
14.2%
Max Drawdown
-49.4%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.08
Test FF5 α (ann.)
1.6%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.31
not significant
Monthly turnover
16%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
70%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.60
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
11.8%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.21
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
8.9%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

99 of 99 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1MMM
3M COIndustrials$83.37B
24.63%
2BE
BLOOM ENERGY CORPIndustrials$61.14B
18.06%
3EXPE
EXPEDIA GROUP INCIndustrials$32.26B
9.53%
4ECHO
ECHO GLOBAL LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$26.66B
7.88%
5CPRT
COPART INCIndustrials$25.56B
7.55%
6SYM
SYMBOTIC INCIndustrials$24.86B
7.34%
7AGX
ARGAN INCIndustrials$7.73B
2.28%
8LSTR
LANDSTAR SYSTEM INCIndustrials$7.18B
2.12%
9FLR
FLUOR CORPIndustrials$6.86B
2.03%
10MYRG
MYR GROUP INCIndustrials$6.10B
1.80%
11MIDD
MIDDLEBY CORPIndustrials$6.02B
1.78%
12CAR
AVIS BUDGET GROUP INCIndustrials$5.67B
1.68%
13GFF
GRIFFON CORPIndustrials$4.20B
1.24%
14TPC
TUTOR PERINI CORPIndustrials$4.14B
1.22%
15ATKR
ATKORE INCIndustrials$2.48B
0.73%
16ALGT
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COIndustrials$1.86B
0.55%
17TE
T1 ENERGY INCIndustrials$1.63B
0.48%
18ENOV
ENOVIS CORPIndustrials$1.56B
0.46%
19BW
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISES INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.40%
20NSSC
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$1.29B
0.38%
21FCEL
FUELCELL ENERGY INCIndustrials$1.25B
0.37%
22HTLD
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INCIndustrials$1.19B
0.35%
23PCT
PURECYCLE TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$1.09B
0.32%
24MATW
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPIndustrials$857M
0.25%
25CYRX
CRYOPORT INCIndustrials$832M
0.25%
26CODI
COMPASS DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGSIndustrials$777M
0.23%
27KODK
EASTMAN KODAK COIndustrials$748M
0.22%
28PKE
PARK AEROSPACE CORPIndustrials$677M
0.20%
29SWBI
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS INCIndustrials$665M
0.20%
30FAC
FACTORIAL ENERGY INCIndustrials$610M
0.18%
31EVAC
EQV VENTURES ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$598M
0.18%
32KELYA
KELLY SERVICES INCIndustrials$531M
0.16%
33GTEN
GORES HOLDINGS X INCIndustrials$472M
0.14%
34ERII
ENERGY RECOVERY INCIndustrials$444M
0.13%
35BCAR
D BORAL ARC ACQUISITION I CORPIndustrials$420M
0.12%
36NPAC
NEW PROVIDENCE ACQUISITION CORP IIIIndustrials$399M
0.12%
37TACO
BERTO ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$394M
0.12%
38RDAG
REPUBLIC DIGITAL ACQUISITION COIndustrials$388M
0.11%
39WENN
WEN ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$387M
0.11%
40CEPT
CANTOR EQUITY PARTNERS II INCIndustrials$376M
0.11%
41SDHI
SIDDHI ACQUISITION CORP (CAYMAN ISLANDS)Industrials$364M
0.11%
42CCII
COHEN CIRCLE ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$360M
0.11%
43TACH
TITAN ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$360M
0.11%
44IPCX
INFLECTION POINT ACQUISITION CORP IIIIndustrials$359M
0.11%
45KCHV
KOCHAV DEFENSE ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$356M
0.11%
46SOUL
SOULPOWER ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$352M
0.10%
47OYSE
OYSTER ENTERPRISES II ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$350M
0.10%
48MTRX
MATRIX SERVICE COIndustrials$342M
0.10%
49BLUW
BLUE WATER ACQUISITION CORP IIIIndustrials$333M
0.10%
50XRPN
ARMADA ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$330M
0.10%
51RTAC
RENATUS TACTICAL ACQUISITION CORP IIndustrials$329M
0.10%
52PCAP
PROCAP ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$326M
0.10%
53OBA
OXLEY BRIDGE ACQUISITION LTDIndustrials$325M
0.10%
54SZZL
SIZZLE ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$325M
0.10%
55CRAQ
CAL REDWOOD ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$324M
0.10%
56PMTR
PERIMETER ACQUISITION CORP IIndustrials$322M
0.09%
57TVA
TEXAS VENTURES ACQUISITION III CORPIndustrials$316M
0.09%
58LWAC
LIGHTWAVE ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$308M
0.09%
59JENA
JENA ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$301M
0.09%
60RAAQ
REAL ASSET ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$300M
0.09%
61BACC
BLUE ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$293M
0.09%
62PACH
PIONEER ACQUISITION I CORPIndustrials$293M
0.09%
63TVAI
THAYER VENTURES ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$281M
0.08%
64AXIN
AXIOM INTELLIGENCE ACQUISITION CORP 1Industrials$280M
0.08%
65PAII
PYROPHYTE ACQUISITION CORP IIIndustrials$279M
0.08%
66CEPO
CANTOR EQUITY PARTNERS I INCIndustrials$271M
0.08%
67VNME
VENDOME ACQUISITION CORP IIndustrials$254M
0.08%
68COPL
COPLEY ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$248M
0.07%
69GTERA
GLOBA TERRA ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$246M
0.07%
70SOCA
SOLARIUS CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$241M
0.07%
71MCGA
YORKVILLE ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$241M
0.07%
72DAAQ
DIGITAL ASSET ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$239M
0.07%
73ONCH
1RT ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$222M
0.07%
74SMHI
SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$214M
0.06%
75EGHA
EGH ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$213M
0.06%
76CCAQ
COLLECTIVE ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$212M
0.06%
77ALTG
ALTA EQUIPMENT GROUP INCIndustrials$208M
0.06%
78FORR
FORRESTER RESEARCH INCIndustrials$200M
0.06%
79FIGX
FIGX CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$199M
0.06%
80PAL
PROFICIENT AUTO LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$197M
0.06%
81EAF
GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTDIndustrials$181M
0.05%
82SPEG
SILVER PEGASUS ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$158M
0.05%
83AP
AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORPIndustrials$156M
0.05%
84INAC
INDIGO ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$152M
0.04%
85HURC
HURCO COMPANIES INCIndustrials$142M
0.04%
86VATE
INNOVATE CORPIndustrials$123M
0.04%
87CHPG
CHAMPIONSGATE ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$104M
0.03%
88CHRN
CHRONOSCALE CORPIndustrials$94M
0.03%
89LCCC
LAKESHORE ACQUISITION III CORPIndustrials$93M
0.03%
90ULBI
ULTRALIFE CORPIndustrials$92M
0.03%
91ORIQ
ORIGIN INVESTMENT CORP IIndustrials$89M
0.03%
92MHH
MASTECH DIGITAL INCIndustrials$89M
0.03%
93FVN
FUTURE VISION II ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$83M
0.02%
94DLHC
DLH HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$80M
0.02%
95WTG
WINTERGREEN ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$76M
0.02%
96TISI
TEAM INCIndustrials$75M
0.02%
97BGSF
BGSF INCIndustrials$65M
0.02%
98UYSC
UY SCUTI ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$56M
0.02%
99RIBB
RIBBON ACQUISITION CORPIndustrials$54M
0.02%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $338.49B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Industrials
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

99 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
44%4
5%3
29%4
3%10
2%15
2%12
<1%5
<1%5
1%22

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 706-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $2.8B, Small < $315M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.60, Growth < 0.34 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 94% toward Large, 41% toward Growth. +13% unclassified (19 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt94% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt41% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 99 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    55.0%
    Margin
    -20.0%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    24.6%
    Margin
    0.4%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

  • Days required to liquidate the largest position at 20% of one day's dollar volume.

    Required
    <= 7.0 days
    Actual
    unbounded
    Margin
Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

1 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 99 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.5 (95% CI 1.1-1.6)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
14.5%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.51x
within
parametric
1.24x
within
cornish fisher
1.24x
within

The estimators differ materially in value but agree on the verdict. Historical and Gaussian fund VaR differ by 22%; both still land on the same side of the 2x limit.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 2004
Before publication (pre-2004)
0.63
Sharpe · 13.2% p.a.
January 1999December 2004 · 72 mo
Since publication
0.01
Sharpe · 0.1% p.a.
January 2005July 2026 · 259 mo
Change in Sharpe−0.62Sharpe weakened since publication100% of the prior annual return given up

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
69%
18 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-2.04
Sharpe, January 2017 – December 2019
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.22
Dispersion
0.72
Best window
1.20

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.-4.2%-13.1%
3 yearsp.a.13.7%-0.1%
5 yearsp.a.12.6%3.0%
10 yearsp.a.10.5%-3.4%
Since inceptionp.a.10.4%1.9%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo-6.1%-18.0%
202520.5%7.3%
202423.7%5.5%
202348.7%25.6%
2022-11.8%6.9%
202113.5%-7.6%
202018.8%-5.6%
201927.7%-7.5%
2018-19.0%-13.0%
20171.9%-18.9%
20168.5%-2.2%
20155.6%9.0%
2014-0.4%-4.6%
201345.9%0.7%
201215.6%3.8%
2011-2.7%-1.4%
201028.2%6.8%
200913.0%-10.0%
2008-31.9%10.7%
200710.6%-6.2%
200626.9%5.0%
200518.6%12.7%
200418.0%-7.2%
200344.5%1.9%
2002-13.5%57.9%
200112.7%9.3%
20004.5%-4.3%
19998.8%23.6%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FDNI
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2020-03-22 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$338.49B

Methodology

The Foundry Industrials dNOA Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Industrials common stocks each month by a dNOA signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.