ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
momentum factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Industrials 12-Month Momentum Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FMOIHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
+69%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
99
cap-weighted
Inception
Aug 2022
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.20
Ann. Return (LS)
4.2%
Ann. Volatility
21.2%
Max Drawdown
-60.7%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.17
Test FF5 α (ann.)
9.0%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
1.14
not significant
Monthly turnover
24%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
69%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.55
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
11.5%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.20
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
7.3%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

99 of 99 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1CAT
CATERPILLAR INCIndustrials$405.49B
25.86%
2VRT
VERTIV HOLDINGS COIndustrials$111.22B
7.09%
3PWR
QUANTA SERVICES INCIndustrials$94.32B
6.02%
4CMI
CUMMINS INCIndustrials$89.48B
5.71%
5FDX
FEDEX CORPIndustrials$74.68B
4.76%
6BE
BLOOM ENERGY CORPIndustrials$61.14B
3.90%
7FIX
COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INCIndustrials$58.93B
3.76%
8DAL
DELTA AIR LINES INCIndustrials$55.35B
3.53%
9RKLB
ROCKET LAB CORPIndustrials$39.14B
2.50%
10CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPIndustrials$27.71B
1.77%
11JBHT
HUNT J B TRANSPORT SERVICES INCIndustrials$27.48B
1.75%
12ECHO
ECHO GLOBAL LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$26.66B
1.70%
13MTZ
MASTEC INCIndustrials$26.04B
1.66%
14ATI
ATI INCIndustrials$25.41B
1.62%
15XPO
XPO INCIndustrials$25.25B
1.61%
16NVT
NVENT ELECTRIC PLCIndustrials$25.05B
1.60%
17CHRW
C H ROBINSON WORLDWIDE INCIndustrials$24.58B
1.57%
18LUV
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES COIndustrials$23.50B
1.50%
19WWD
WOODWARD INCIndustrials$23.41B
1.49%
20FTAI
FTAI AVIATION LTDIndustrials$21.28B
1.36%
21STRL
STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE INCIndustrials$19.59B
1.25%
22RBC
RBC BEARINGS INCIndustrials$18.20B
1.16%
23WCC
WESCO INTERNATIONAL INCIndustrials$15.97B
1.02%
24MOG.A
MOOG INCIndustrials$12.46B
0.79%
25KNX
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$12.46B
0.79%
26DY
DYCOM INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$12.23B
0.78%
27IESC
IES HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$12.21B
0.78%
28AEIS
ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$10.80B
0.69%
29VMI
VALMONT INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$10.32B
0.66%
30TKR
TIMKEN COIndustrials$9.57B
0.61%
31POWL
POWELL INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$8.48B
0.54%
32PL
PLANET LABS PBCIndustrials$8.01B
0.51%
33HXL
HEXCEL CORPIndustrials$7.83B
0.50%
34AGX
ARGAN INCIndustrials$7.73B
0.49%
35ENS
ENERSYSIndustrials$7.18B
0.46%
36ACA
ARCOSA INCIndustrials$7.12B
0.45%
37NPO
ENPRO INCIndustrials$6.82B
0.43%
38MATX
MATSON INCIndustrials$6.72B
0.43%
39MYRG
MYR GROUP INCIndustrials$6.10B
0.39%
40MRCY
MERCURY SYSTEMS INCIndustrials$5.77B
0.37%
41GVA
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCIndustrials$5.43B
0.35%
42AIR
AAR CORPIndustrials$5.38B
0.34%
43XMTR
XOMETRY INCIndustrials$5.18B
0.33%
44RXO
RXO INCIndustrials$4.83B
0.31%
45TPC
TUTOR PERINI CORPIndustrials$4.14B
0.26%
46SXI
STANDEX INTERNATIONAL CORPIndustrials$3.67B
0.23%
47ARCB
ARCBEST CORPIndustrials$3.56B
0.23%
48LUNR
INTUITIVE MACHINES INCIndustrials$2.93B
0.19%
49CECO
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL CORPIndustrials$2.87B
0.18%
50WERN
WERNER ENTERPRISES INCIndustrials$2.76B
0.18%
51HLIO
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$2.68B
0.17%
52DCO
DUCOMMUN INCIndustrials$2.54B
0.16%
53PBI
PITNEY BOWES INCIndustrials$2.51B
0.16%
54ATRO
ASTRONICS CORPIndustrials$2.41B
0.15%
55CTOS
CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE INCIndustrials$2.35B
0.15%
56VSTS
VESTIS CORPIndustrials$2.18B
0.14%
57GRC
GORMAN RUPP COIndustrials$2.11B
0.13%
58ALGT
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COIndustrials$1.86B
0.12%
59PRLB
PROTO LABS INCIndustrials$1.85B
0.12%
60LIND
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.81B
0.12%
61TH
TARGET HOSPITALITY CORPIndustrials$1.64B
0.10%
62TE
T1 ENERGY INCIndustrials$1.63B
0.10%
63PLPC
PREFORMED LINE PRODUCTS COIndustrials$1.60B
0.10%
64PRSU
PURSUIT ATTRACTIONS & HOSPITALITY INCIndustrials$1.45B
0.09%
65AMPX
AMPRIUS TECHNOLOGIES INCIndustrials$1.44B
0.09%
66ULCC
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$1.43B
0.09%
67WLFC
WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORPIndustrials$1.35B
0.09%
68BW
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISES INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.09%
69FBYD
FALCON'S BEYOND GLOBAL INCIndustrials$1.35B
0.09%
70NWPX
NWPX INFRASTRUCTURE INCIndustrials$1.33B
0.08%
71GHM
GRAHAM CORPIndustrials$1.26B
0.08%
72FCEL
FUELCELL ENERGY INCIndustrials$1.25B
0.08%
73AMRC
AMERESCO INCIndustrials$1.22B
0.08%
74HTLD
HEARTLAND EXPRESS INCIndustrials$1.19B
0.08%
75CVLG
COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP INCIndustrials$1.19B
0.08%
76RHLD
RESOLUTE HOLDINGS MANAGEMENT INCIndustrials$1.10B
0.07%
77GNK
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTDIndustrials$1.05B
0.07%
78CYRX
CRYOPORT INCIndustrials$832M
0.05%
79UMAC
UNUSUAL MACHINES INCIndustrials$809M
0.05%
80CODI
COMPASS DIVERSIFIED HOLDINGSIndustrials$777M
0.05%
81PKE
PARK AEROSPACE CORPIndustrials$677M
0.04%
82SWBI
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS INCIndustrials$665M
0.04%
83NVRI
ENVIRI CORPIndustrials$643M
0.04%
84MEC
MAYVILLE ENGINEERING COMPANY INCIndustrials$634M
0.04%
85PKOH
PARK OHIO HOLDINGS CORPIndustrials$544M
0.03%
86BBCP
CONCRETE PUMPING HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$531M
0.03%
87ORN
ORION GROUP HOLDINGS INCIndustrials$518M
0.03%
88MG
MISTRAS GROUP INCIndustrials$500M
0.03%
89SPIR
SPIRE GLOBAL INCIndustrials$488M
0.03%
90QUAD
QUAD/GRAPHICS INCIndustrials$446M
0.03%
91FSTR
FOSTER L B COIndustrials$439M
0.03%
92RLGT
RADIANT LOGISTICS INCIndustrials$431M
0.03%
93TWIN
TWIN DISC INCIndustrials$326M
0.02%
94ESOA
ENERGY SERVICES OF AMERICA CORPIndustrials$299M
0.02%
95AP
AMPCO PITTSBURGH CORPIndustrials$156M
0.01%
96RFIL
R F INDUSTRIES LTDIndustrials$143M
0.01%
97SIF
SIFCO INDUSTRIES INCIndustrials$141M
0.01%
98VATE
INNOVATE CORPIndustrials$123M
0.01%
99CHRN
CHRONOSCALE CORPIndustrials$94M
0.01%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $1.57T. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Industrials
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

99 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
10%4
18%20
66%21
1%19
1%11
1%7
<1%2
<1%1
<1%1

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 706-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $2.8B, Small < $315M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.60, Growth < 0.34 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 98% toward Large, 78% toward Growth. +3% unclassified (13 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt98% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt78% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 99 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
5
Failed
1
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    75.3%
    Margin
    0.3%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    25.9%
    Margin
    -0.9%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

2 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 99 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.7 (95% CI 1.2-1.8)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
16.0%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.66x
within
parametric
1.33x
within
cornish fisher
1.34x
within

The estimators differ materially in value but agree on the verdict. Historical and Gaussian fund VaR differ by 25%; both still land on the same side of the 2x limit.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 1993
Entirely since publication
All 331 months of our record post-date the 1993 paper.
Sharpe 0.204.2% p.a.January 1999July 2026

There is no “before” to compare against — the predictor was already public when our data begins, so every month shown is out-of-sample relative to the original study.

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
58%
15 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-0.67
Sharpe, January 2021 – December 2023
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.22
Dispersion
0.60
Best window
1.43

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.30.2%18.3%
3 yearsp.a.26.3%20.7%
5 yearsp.a.14.2%5.4%
10 yearsp.a.15.7%6.5%
Since inceptionp.a.9.7%1.9%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo25.3%24.5%
202516.9%8.9%
202430.9%23.5%
202317.3%-13.2%
2022-16.7%-11.3%
202117.8%-10.0%
202020.9%-0.3%
201931.2%-5.7%
2018-7.2%25.9%
201729.6%61.8%
20169.1%-20.1%
20151.6%32.6%
201421.8%17.3%
201341.3%6.2%
201214.1%0.9%
2011-6.8%-1.6%
201036.2%12.2%
20094.7%-34.9%
2008-46.6%-9.3%
200743.4%46.5%
200615.7%-1.0%
20057.5%2.7%
200432.0%5.9%
200330.5%-22.8%
2002-3.7%26.3%
2001-26.8%-34.1%
2000-17.7%-26.7%
199910.4%17.8%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FMOI
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2022-08-20 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$1.57T

Methodology

The Foundry Industrials 12-Month Momentum Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Industrials common stocks each month by a 12-Month Momentum signal and holds the top quintile with the highest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.