ETF Foundry
DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
accruals factor · long-only model fund

Foundry Consumer Cyclical dNOA Factor ETF

ETF Foundry Research (hypothetical) · rebalanced monthly

FDNCHYPOTHETICAL MODEL
Since ’99
−15%
Expense Ratio
0.45%
placeholder
Holdings
61
cap-weighted
Inception
Mar 2020
placeholder
Full Sharpe
0.05
Ann. Return (LS)
0.8%
Ann. Volatility
16.4%
Max Drawdown
-55.5%
Test Sharpe ’19–26
0.13
Test FF5 α (ann.)
1.2%
vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
0.15
not significant
Monthly turnover
16%
of the long leg, per rebalance
Cumulative return (LS)
-15%
over 331 months
This fund holds the long leg only
Long leg Sharpe
0.55
what this fund holds
Long leg ann. return
12.4%
buyable, long-only
Long-short Sharpe
0.05
requires shorting
Bottom bucket ann. return
11.6%
the basket shorted

Every other metric on this page is the long-shortstrategy, which needs a short book. This fund is the long leg alone, so these are the figures for what it actually holds. The bottom-bucket number is that basket’s own return — not short P&L.

Hypothetical growth of $1 — long-short backtest

Gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs · not investor results

331 months

Holdings

Every constituent of the long leg — sort, search or filter by sector

61 of 61 · 100.0% of book
TickerCompanySectorMarket capWeight
1EBAY
EBAY INCConsumer Cyclical$49.75B
25.83%
2TPR
TAPESTRY INCConsumer Cyclical$28.58B
14.84%
3IP
INTERNATIONAL PAPER COConsumer Cyclical$19.89B
10.33%
4MBLY
MOBILEYE GLOBAL INCConsumer Cyclical$7.76B
4.03%
5RSI
RUSH STREET INTERACTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$7.56B
3.93%
6CROX
CROCS INCConsumer Cyclical$6.81B
3.54%
7LKQ
LKQ CORPConsumer Cyclical$6.47B
3.36%
8MSGE
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN ENTERTAINMENT CORPConsumer Cyclical$3.56B
1.85%
9GEF
GREIF INCConsumer Cyclical$3.52B
1.83%
10CALY
CALLAWAY GOLF COConsumer Cyclical$3.48B
1.81%
11CARG
CARGURUS INCConsumer Cyclical$3.16B
1.64%
12DAN
DANA INCConsumer Cyclical$2.87B
1.49%
13LCID
LUCID GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$2.87B
1.49%
14HOG
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INCConsumer Cyclical$2.80B
1.45%
15PENN
PENN ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$2.75B
1.43%
16PTON
PELOTON INTERACTIVE INCConsumer Cyclical$2.55B
1.33%
17DRVN
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$2.51B
1.30%
18BLBD
BLUE BIRD CORPConsumer Cyclical$2.48B
1.29%
19MCRI
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT INCConsumer Cyclical$2.18B
1.13%
20AIN
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORPConsumer Cyclical$2.12B
1.10%
21GT
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COConsumer Cyclical$2.10B
1.09%
22KSS
KOHLS CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.96B
1.02%
23CPRI
CAPRI HOLDINGS LTDConsumer Cyclical$1.89B
0.98%
24FUN
SIX FLAGS ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATIONConsumer Cyclical$1.79B
0.93%
25LEG
LEGGETT & PLATT INCConsumer Cyclical$1.50B
0.78%
26TRS
TRIMAS CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.46B
0.76%
27REAL
THEREALREAL INCConsumer Cyclical$1.35B
0.70%
28TDAY
USA TODAY CO INCConsumer Cyclical$1.25B
0.65%
29LQDT
LIQUIDITY SERVICES INCConsumer Cyclical$1.23B
0.64%
30MYE
MYERS INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$1.17B
0.61%
31PZZA
PAPA JOHNS INTERNATIONAL INCConsumer Cyclical$1.08B
0.56%
32SCHL
SCHOLASTIC CORPConsumer Cyclical$1.02B
0.53%
33WGO
WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$868M
0.45%
34FOXF
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORPConsumer Cyclical$798M
0.41%
35HOV
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES INCConsumer Cyclical$772M
0.40%
36KRT
KARAT PACKAGING INCConsumer Cyclical$760M
0.39%
37BLMN
BLOOMIN' BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$731M
0.38%
38CARS
CARSCOM INCConsumer Cyclical$670M
0.35%
39CNNE
CANNAE HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$657M
0.34%
40MLR
MILLER INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$566M
0.29%
41JOUT
JOHNSON OUTDOORS INCConsumer Cyclical$485M
0.25%
42BNED
BARNES & NOBLE EDUCATION INCConsumer Cyclical$437M
0.23%
43MCFT
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$407M
0.21%
44FLXS
FLEXSTEEL INDUSTRIES INCConsumer Cyclical$391M
0.20%
45WEYS
WEYCO GROUP INCConsumer Cyclical$374M
0.19%
46STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORPConsumer Cyclical$344M
0.18%
47FNKO
FUNKO INCConsumer Cyclical$326M
0.17%
48HBB
HAMILTON BEACH BRANDS HOLDING COConsumer Cyclical$313M
0.16%
49JACK
JACK IN THE BOX INCConsumer Cyclical$286M
0.15%
50LOVE
LOVESAC COConsumer Cyclical$267M
0.14%
51ONEW
ONEWATER MARINE INCConsumer Cyclical$224M
0.12%
52SRI
STONERIDGE INCConsumer Cyclical$197M
0.10%
53LCUT
LIFETIME BRANDS INCConsumer Cyclical$195M
0.10%
54COOK
TRAEGER INCConsumer Cyclical$193M
0.10%
55INSE
INSPIRED ENTERTAINMENT INCConsumer Cyclical$174M
0.09%
56HOFT
HOOKER FURNISHINGS CORPConsumer Cyclical$152M
0.08%
57CHPT
CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INCConsumer Cyclical$146M
0.08%
58RRGB
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INCConsumer Cyclical$130M
0.07%
59UFI
UNIFI INCConsumer Cyclical$118M
0.06%
60INTG
INTERGROUP CORPConsumer Cyclical$84M
0.04%
61NDLS
NOODLES & COConsumer Cyclical$66M
0.03%

Full long-leg book as of July 2026 · cap-weighted · total market cap $192.62B. Hypothetical model holdings — not a registered fund’s portfolio.

Sector Breakdown

1 sectors
Consumer Cyclical
100.0%

Portfolio Style

Size × value map of the long-leg book

61 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
·
44%4
19%2
11%9
4%3
7%4
3%13
2%7
3%6

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 310-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $5.9B, Small < $1.3B. Columns: Value ≥ 0.62, Growth < 0.38 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 80% toward Large, 58% toward Growth. +9% unclassified (13 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt80% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt58% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 61 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Constraint checks

How this book measures against the concentration and liquidity rules — as implemented here

How this book was built

These are UNCONSTRAINED factor sleeves: the construction pipeline sorts on a signal and cap-weights the top bucket, applying no issuer cap, no industry cap and no liquidity screen beyond the universe filter. A failing test therefore reports a constraint that was never applied during construction — it is not a defect in the strategy and not an error in the data. The same signal can be solved subject to these constraints.

Passed
4
Failed
2
Not tested
1
Independent checks
7

7 independent checks plus 1 arithmetically implied by another check (RIC / IRC 851(b)(3)(A) 50% bucket), which is reported separately so the tally cannot overstate scrutiny.

1 of 7 checks could not be tested. Those are neither passes nor failures — they are gaps in what the data can answer, and they are excluded from the passed count above rather than folded into it.

  • With respect to 75% of total assets, no more than 5% may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    >= 75.0%
    Actual
    64.0%
    Margin
    -11.0%
  • No more than 25% of total assets may be invested in the securities of any one issuer.

    Required
    <= 25.0%
    Actual
    25.8%
    Margin
    -0.8%

    Close to the line. The engine flags this verdict as one a routine data rebuild could flip. Read it as borderline rather than settled — the margin beside it is the whole story.

Reported separately — arithmetically implied

Engineering approximation of the cited rules for a DRAFT / HYPOTHETICAL model portfolio that is not a registered fund. This reports whether the portfolio passes the stated test AS IMPLEMENTED HERE; it is not a compliance opinion and is not a statement that any fund is compliant. Real filings need securities counsel.

1 verdict(s) sit within 1.0pp of their limit and can be flipped by a routine data rebuild; do not headline them, and always show the margin.

Data version — panel=20260719T025334 rows=2239262 asof=202607 issuers=20260719T014536 rates=20260804T224700

Measured on the 2026-07 formation date across 61 holdings (cap-weighted). A different formation date can produce different verdicts.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Whether this long-only book is subject to the VaR tests at all

This assessment describes the long-only book this fund holds — the top bucket only.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(4) limited derivatives user exception

This fund QUALIFIES for the limited-derivatives-user exception, so it is excepted from the VaR tests; the ratio below is informational, not the operative limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Qualifies
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
0% of net assets
Margin
+10pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Informational — does not govern

This fund is excepted from the VaR tests, so the ratio below is context rather than the operative limit. It is shown because it is still a description of the book’s risk, not because it decides anything.

Measured
1.5 (95% CI 1.1-1.6)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
14.1%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
1.46x
within
parametric
1.44x
within
cornish fisher
1.38x
within

The estimators agree, which is mild evidence the number isn’t an artefact of one method.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

The research long-short construction behind this factor does not qualify for this exception — a dollar-neutral book counts its full short notional, which is 100% of net assets against a 10% threshold. This product sidesteps that by holding the long leg alone, which is also why the long-leg Sharpe is reported separately throughout the site.

See the long-short verdict on the factor page →

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 2004
Before publication (pre-2004)
-0.40
Sharpe · -5.5% p.a.
January 1999December 2004 · 72 mo
Since publication
0.15
Sharpe · 2.5% p.a.
January 2005July 2026 · 259 mo
Change in Sharpe+0.55the return flipped from negative to positive since publication

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
50%
13 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.42
Sharpe, January 2002 – December 2004
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.01
Dispersion
0.61
Best window
1.42

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long leg is what this fund holds — long-short is shown for reference

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong legLong-short
1 yearcum.14.9%16.4%
3 yearsp.a.12.8%-3.9%
5 yearsp.a.8.7%-3.1%
10 yearsp.a.14.2%-1.2%
Since inceptionp.a.10.3%-0.6%
Calendar years
YearLong legLong-short
20267 mo5.2%5.6%
202525.6%25.7%
20244.0%-36.2%
202323.6%-29.4%
2022-25.0%21.7%
202146.1%34.7%
202027.1%20.2%
201922.6%-12.6%
2018-6.8%-22.0%
201732.5%5.6%
201615.1%5.7%
2015-1.4%6.2%
201415.7%8.5%
201345.0%1.0%
201224.9%-3.1%
20110.7%5.8%
201025.3%-11.7%
200955.4%1.5%
2008-34.9%31.6%
2007-8.8%-10.0%
200616.6%4.9%
20050.6%5.4%
200414.2%-20.7%
200330.4%-12.1%
2002-14.4%-8.0%
200124.5%-3.0%
2000-14.5%6.1%
1999-5.9%2.7%

Long leg = the top bucket this fund holds; long-short additionally shorts the bottom bucket and is not achievable in a long-only vehicle. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Fund Facts

Ticker (pseudo)FDNC
IssuerETF Foundry Research (hypothetical)
SeriesHypothetical Model Portfolio Series (not a registered trust)
Expense ratio0.45% (placeholder)
Inception2020-03-21 (placeholder)
Listing exchangeNot listed (hypothetical)
CUSIPNot applicable (hypothetical model portfolio)
RebalanceMonthly
Holdings as ofJuly 2026
Total mkt cap (long leg)$192.62B

Methodology

The Foundry Consumer Cyclical dNOA Factor ETF tracks a rules-based model that ranks Consumer Cyclical common stocks each month by a dNOA signal and holds the top quintile with the lowest values. Signals are computed from point-in-time Sharadar fundamentals and total-return prices. The portfolio reconstitutes monthly and is cap-weighted within the long leg.

This is a hypothetical model portfolio for research display only — not a registered fund, not an offer, and not investment advice.

Documents (draft — hypothetical)

Auto-generated from the model’s metrics and current holdings. Every document is labeled DRAFT / hypothetical.

Summary Prospectus

Objective, fees, strategy, and key risks.

View →
Prospectus

Full strategy, model methodology, and risks.

View →
Statement of Additional Information

Policies, construction, and governance.

View →
Fact Sheet

One-page snapshot with top holdings.

View →
Daily Holdings

Full current constituent list.

View →

DRAFT — HYPOTHETICAL MODEL PORTFOLIO — NOT A REGISTERED FUND, NOT AN OFFER TO SELL SECURITIES, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.