ETF Foundry
investment factor

ChEQ

Long low ChEQ · rebalanced monthly · cap-weighted long-short

What it measures

Ratio of book equity (ceq) to book equity in the previous year. Include only if book equity is positive this year and last year.

Why it should work

Investment: firms that expand assets/capex aggressively have historically underperformed conservative firms (the asset-growth effect).

Full Sharpe
0.08
Ann. Return (LS)
1.0%
Ann. Volatility
12.5%
Max Drawdown
-57.7%

Growth of $1 — long-short

Financial Services only · cap-weighted · 331 months

Financial Services only
Where the edge comes from
Long leg Sharpe
0.35
top bucket, long-only
Long leg ann. return
7.8%
the buyable side
Bottom bucket Sharpe
0.32
the basket we short
Bottom bucket ann. return
6.7%
lower ⇒ wider spread

The bottom-bucket figures are that basket’s ownreturn (a long position in what the strategy shorts) — not the short side’s P&L. Long-short return = long leg − bottom bucket, so a falling bottom bucket widens the spread.

Performance by period
’00–’12 · ’13–’18 · ’19–’26windows
Evaluation windows
StartEnd
train
val
test

Recomputes the split Sharpes and test alpha. Full Sharpe, ann. return, max drawdown and OAP correlation span the whole sample and don’t change.

Sharpe by split
Train ’00–’12-0.16
Val ’13–’180.48
Test ’19–’260.65
Test FF5 α (ann.)
9.5%
alpha vs Fama-French 5
Test FF5 α t-stat
2.29
significant (|t| ≥ 2)
Monthly turnover
12%
of the long leg, per rebalance

Source study

Lockwood and Prombutr · 2010

JFR

111 citationsPublished +0.80%/mo · t 5.38
View on Google Scholar

Worked example

Live inputs for a real holding

AAPL · July 2026
InputValue
equity106,491,000,000$
equity (t−12)66,796,000,000$
Formula
equity / equity_l12 - 1
Raw1.5943Signed −1)-1.5943

signed_value is the internal ranking value; only its cross-sectional rank matters. $-vs-$M unit mix means ratio magnitudes carry a constant offset and are not comparable to textbook levels.

Replication

How closely this rebuild tracks the published research

Replicable
Open Source Asset Pricing signalChEQ
Correlation — full sample
Correlation — test window
Published monthly return0.80%
Published t-stat5.38

The OSAP comparison is only computed for the all-stocks variant — switch to “All stocks” above to see how the rebuild tracks the published series.

Style tilt

Size × value map of the long leg

105 classified
Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
5%7
22%7
70%24
1%10
1%12
1%10
<1%19
<1%11
<1%2

Share of long-leg capital by market cap × book-to-market, using terciles of the 554-name universe at July 2026. Rows: Large ≥ $4.3B, Small < $753M. Columns: Value ≥ 0.61, Growth < 0.39 B/M. The dot marks the capital-weighted centroid of the book — 99% toward Large, 83% toward Growth. +1% unclassified (3 missing size/value). Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not realized P&L.

Tilt over time
Size tilt99% → Large
SmallLarge
Value ↔ growth tilt83% → Growth
ValueGrowth

Capital-weighted centroid of the long leg, December 1998July 2026; the right-hand end is the same value as the box’s dot. 105 names now. Hypothetical holdings — descriptive, not P&L.

Since publication

Did the edge survive the paper coming out?

published 2010
Before publication (pre-2010)
-0.26
Sharpe · -3.9% p.a.
January 1999December 2010 · 144 mo
Since publication
0.48
Sharpe · 4.8% p.a.
January 2011July 2026 · 187 mo
Change in Sharpe+0.73the return flipped from negative to positive since publication

Split at January of the year after the factor was published. The post-publication stretch IS genuinely out-of-sample relative to the original study -- the predictor was public by then -- so it speaks to whether the effect survived being known. Nothing is fitted here, so this is performance SINCE PUBLICATION, not validation of a model. Note the 'pre' side is our data before publication (our panel starts ~1999), NOT the study's original in-sample period, which usually ran decades earlier; a decay figure compares before-vs-after within our sample and is not a comparison against the published result.

Derivatives risk (Rule 18f-4)

Relative VaR against the designated reference portfolio — as implemented here

long-short

This assessment describes the research long-short construction — long the top bucket, short the bottom.

Governing rule
Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i) relative VaR (exception unavailable)

This fund does NOT qualify for the limited-derivatives-user exception (100% of net assets vs <= 10% of net assets), so the relative VaR test governs. Note the inversion: a dollar-neutral long-short book suppresses the market risk the VaR ratio measures and so tends to pass it, while being barred from the exception by construction — what disqualifies the strategy is the exposure threshold, not the risk limit.

Limited derivatives user exceptionby construction

Rule 18f-4(c)(4): a fund whose derivatives exposure (gross notional, including the value of assets sold short) is <= 10% of net assets is excepted from the VaR tests and the full derivatives risk management program.

Does not qualify
Required
<= 10% of net assets
Exposure
100% of net assets
Margin
90pp

No confidence interval: this follows from portfolio construction, not from an estimate.

Rule 18f-4(c)(2)(i): fund VaR at 99% over 20 trading days must not exceed 200% of the designated reference portfolio's VaR on the same basis.

Within the limit as implemented
Measured
1.0 (95% CI 0.7-1.3)
x reference VaR
Limit
2.00x
<= 2.00x reference VaR
Fund VaR
9.5%
99% / 20d
Reference
9.6%
FF5 market (mkt)

historical method · 331 monthly observations · about 3.3 in the 99% tail · paired percentile bootstrap over months

Same test, three estimators
historical
0.98x
within
parametric
0.84x
within
cornish fisher
1.02x
within

The estimators differ materially in value but agree on the verdict. Historical and Gaussian fund VaR differ by 17%; both still land on the same side of the 2x limit.

Engineering approximation of SEC Rule 18f-4 for research display. Not a compliance opinion and not a determination that any fund is compliant. Hypothetical model portfolio, not a registered fund.

Consistency across eras

Is this record broadly durable, or one regime?

26 windows
Positive windows
69%
18 of 26 3-year windows made money
Worst window
-1.02
Sharpe, January 2009 – December 2011
January 1999July 2026
Median Sharpe
0.40
Dispersion
0.61
Best window
1.10

3-year rolling windows, stepping 1 year (26 windows). Dispersion is the spread of window Sharpes — higher means the record depends more on which era you look at.

Rules-based factors fit no parameters, so these windows are not out-of-sample tests and do not validate a fitted model. They show whether the factor's record is consistent across eras or driven by one regime.

Returns

Long-short is the research line; the long leg is what a long-only fund could hold

since January 1999
Trailing
PeriodLong-shortLong leg
1 yearcum.11.7%1.5%
3 yearsp.a.10.9%19.4%
5 yearsp.a.4.5%8.8%
10 yearsp.a.4.5%12.9%
Since inceptionp.a.0.2%5.3%
Calendar years
YearLong-shortLong leg
20267 mo2.3%-1.4%
202513.8%10.8%
20243.2%36.7%
20232.0%9.9%
202215.2%-5.2%
2021-3.6%27.2%
20205.4%-0.5%
201921.0%39.4%
2018-6.6%-13.5%
20173.8%24.2%
20160.7%17.0%
20153.5%2.8%
201413.4%15.3%
20135.4%47.9%
2012-0.8%25.2%
2011-6.1%-19.9%
2010-13.1%6.5%
2009-17.7%5.5%
2008-20.1%-63.9%
2007-9.3%-18.0%
2006-2.3%14.7%
20050.7%6.5%
20046.3%19.6%
20039.1%42.4%
2002-7.6%-19.1%
200121.1%9.3%
20006.0%31.6%
1999-22.2%-14.1%

Long-short is the research line (long the top bucket, short the bottom); the long leg alone is what a long-only fund could actually hold. Trailing figures run through July 2026: 1 year is a plain cumulative 12-month return (cum.), 3 years and longer are annualised (p.a.). Years marked with a month count are partial. These match the fact sheet’s tables by construction. Hypothetical backtest, gross of the placeholder expense ratio and trading costs — not investor results.

Methodology

Signal computed monthly from Sharadar point-in-time data, signed so higher = higher expected return. Restricted to the Financial Services sector, then sorted into quintiles within that sector. The virtual ETF is long the top bucket, short the bottom, cap-weighted, rebalanced monthly. FF5 alpha regresses the long-short on the Fama-French 5 factors.

Hypothetical research backtest. Not an offer, recommendation, or investment advice.